Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93728 14856 143 760 454 23 0 0
OW 94 886 79 583 563 45 0 0
VODI 42 301 51 599 753 200 6 0
ODI 0 45 11 236 806 444 16 0
CDI 0 6 6 136 726 1475 132 21
VCDI 0 0 0 59 1416 6653 18901 41793
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92328 14279 151 829 489 60 0 0
OW 60 1068 82 608 473 87 0 0
VODI 51 447 42 550 867 239 18 0
ODI 19 97 22 295 736 447 16 1
CDI 0 11 5 109 775 961 140 37
VCDI 0 0 0 42 973 6673 19417 43544
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90738 15024 195 911 494 103 0 0
OW 88 596 62 528 542 199 0 0
VODI 54 237 28 444 900 268 0 0
ODI 10 86 12 145 679 588 34 0
CDI 0 22 10 77 715 1611 234 42
VCDI 0 0 2 52 403 5632 21728 43555
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89990 14794 159 712 495 244 0 0
OW 68 517 44 405 635 281 0 0
VODI 27 352 31 290 898 500 0 0
ODI 24 158 19 157 577 614 24 0
CDI 1 49 6 128 517 1011 286 13
VCDI 0 21 8 109 661 4659 17312 50252
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90001 14894 165 774 578 273 0 0
OW 65 470 38 325 544 225 0 0
VODI 27 335 35 306 870 498 0 0
ODI 17 124 15 170 566 596 19 0
CDI 0 45 4 104 525 938 259 13
VCDI 0 23 10 122 700 4779 17344 50252

Date: 2021-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90178 14042 112 494 286 255 12 0
OW 59 704 58 357 239 401 19 0
VODI 1 348 44 525 479 639 13 0
ODI 0 121 30 340 405 690 34 0
CDI 0 20 10 258 640 755 198 5
VCDI 0 0 0 103 830 4603 14306 54435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90180 14163 118 511 301 368 11 0
OW 57 601 54 372 240 336 15 0
VODI 1 338 47 489 430 608 19 0
ODI 0 107 23 335 413 648 29 0
CDI 0 20 10 262 580 669 182 7
VCDI 0 6 2 108 915 4714 14326 54433

Date: 2021-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88700 15007 124 449 230 109 0 0
OW 60 481 66 468 215 19 0 0
VODI 3 162 34 590 624 87 8 0
ODI 0 59 7 230 865 370 53 0
CDI 0 28 5 67 737 1464 413 19
VCDI 0 24 10 75 579 4222 15204 55181
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88706 14522 118 525 399 194 22 0
OW 57 612 46 313 341 213 119 0
VODI 0 389 37 402 502 438 124 0
ODI 0 137 23 264 471 467 148 0
CDI 0 63 11 207 584 535 287 34
VCDI 0 38 11 168 953 4424 14978 55166

Date: 2021-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87761 14934 135 558 217 91 1 18
OW 72 750 53 381 192 16 0 5
VODI 15 321 42 571 448 69 1 6
ODI 3 65 18 340 562 147 6 4
CDI 0 5 4 184 779 415 141 2
VCDI 0 0 2 79 1041 6915 15671 54008
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87771 14591 135 606 310 115 3 26
OW 71 803 32 358 236 119 36 6
VODI 9 483 45 461 488 344 161 1
ODI 0 147 27 309 503 345 187 0
CDI 0 42 11 244 516 573 292 14
VCDI 0 9 4 135 1186 6157 15141 53996

Date: 2021-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87450 13875 160 672 500 93 8 8
OW 75 658 39 342 305 50 1 6
VODI 25 424 31 388 468 191 5 10
ODI 7 70 21 285 505 306 25 1
CDI 0 2 3 138 626 604 65 16
VCDI 0 0 0 31 853 5872 19968 51866
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87446 13455 139 691 572 120 10 16
OW 81 809 29 224 338 128 9 7
VODI 26 550 52 410 452 412 59 1
ODI 4 162 18 260 436 457 161 1
CDI 0 51 15 216 615 751 304 12
VCDI 0 2 1 55 844 5248 19529 51870


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