Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-11-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-15

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 165 12 85 50 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 18 53 4 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 18 68 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 53 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 85 78 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 1393 6902 27756
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 155 12 74 62 0 0 0
OW 0 9 0 26 37 3 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 12 66 13 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 6 46 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 37 51 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 150 1428 6902 27756

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 1 37 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 19 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 69 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 530 1297 921
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 1 61 14 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 85 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 90 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 45 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 509 1297 921

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 86 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 10 48 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 1 77 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 3 84 34 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 300 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 694 2885 5601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 80 4 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 9 64 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 2 34 39 18 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 12 37 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 54 69 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 897 2917 5601

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 333 18 167 126 107 0 0
OW 0 165 28 155 155 96 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 129 233 64 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 230 136 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 319 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 190 2165 719
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 346 29 276 310 206 1 0
OW 0 147 18 114 114 86 11 0
VODI 0 12 2 64 218 76 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 99 99 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 197 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 248 2166 719

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 28 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 274 3138 3797
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 284 3138 3797

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 245 3391 1640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 92 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 243 3337 1635

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 207 1696 20 71 16 0 0 0
OW 1 80 17 96 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 6 120 66 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 295 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 103 242 5 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 674 2356 158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 208 1544 22 81 5 0 0 0
OW 0 156 10 73 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 9 96 110 2 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 49 200 46 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 18 106 98 9 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 807 2352 153

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6385 3290 45 265 85 0 0 0
OW 0 28 7 73 128 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 5 72 147 21 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 22 114 113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 77 151 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 46 222 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6385 3247 46 268 111 0 0 0
OW 0 44 7 62 95 2 0 0
VODI 0 27 0 32 128 37 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 21 62 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 33 108 94 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 93 301 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6862 2489 4 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 122 8 35 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 5 53 34 1 0 0
ODI 0 22 9 53 57 20 14 0
CDI 0 1 4 64 81 54 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 153 374 1006 10
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6862 2312 4 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 148 6 21 9 0 1 0
VODI 0 145 2 37 21 14 22 0
ODI 0 80 3 34 32 19 13 0
CDI 0 39 13 73 69 22 17 0
VCDI 0 4 2 71 198 394 992 10

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11505 1283 14 46 57 14 0 0
OW 0 2 1 7 9 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 13 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11505 1282 14 44 55 12 0 0
OW 0 3 1 12 13 14 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 19 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 814 1329 42 117 34 0 0 0
OW 0 49 10 119 41 5 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 79 179 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 240 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 176 600 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 142 1486 118 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 814 1225 30 126 37 0 0 0
OW 0 148 20 110 103 32 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 53 183 124 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 36 102 158 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 140 188 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 247 1756 118 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5143 2924 11 39 0 0 0 0
OW 20 145 13 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 19 50 5 61 22 0 0 0
ODI 1 1 0 9 59 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5116 2590 11 40 0 0 0 0
OW 3 239 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 33 207 15 67 40 9 0 0
ODI 31 84 3 14 31 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 22 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18645 1520 4 5 0 0 0 0
OW 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 1 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 5 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18592 1520 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 54 1 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 8 0 2 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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