Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-11-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88807 8566 85 364 124 66 0 0
OW 31 163 25 201 116 24 0 0
VODI 0 37 9 142 154 30 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 71 168 39 0 0
CDI 0 6 2 40 272 117 0 0
VCDI 0 4 1 71 378 1698 6161 1103
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88767 7979 66 366 133 65 0 0
OW 29 252 26 207 199 36 0 0
VODI 0 80 17 165 233 67 0 0
ODI 0 13 5 84 127 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 211 181 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 361 1663 5465 2118
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88121 8556 78 342 74 5 0 0
OW 29 152 22 191 129 25 0 0
VODI 0 36 15 221 205 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 146 196 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 335 173 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 382 1510 3452 4451
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87235 8926 69 431 104 0 0 0
OW 34 228 27 172 169 13 0 0
VODI 0 69 20 184 219 79 8 0
ODI 0 16 9 135 179 108 0 0
CDI 0 6 3 89 275 151 4 0
VCDI 0 0 1 29 496 1980 4017 3615
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87235 8940 72 421 128 1 0 0
OW 34 213 24 185 161 18 1 0
VODI 0 73 22 188 198 72 7 0
ODI 0 15 7 134 182 92 0 0
CDI 0 4 4 84 284 140 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 489 2008 4021 3615

Date: 2021-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86052 9297 87 388 140 1 0 0
OW 35 266 24 254 211 7 2 0
VODI 0 91 29 198 354 58 4 0
ODI 0 21 4 158 236 104 3 0
CDI 0 4 5 74 342 176 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 413 2214 6214 1606
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86052 9291 94 433 135 1 0 0
OW 35 260 21 214 233 13 2 0
VODI 0 105 25 166 338 66 7 0
ODI 0 20 4 179 223 86 0 0
CDI 0 3 5 84 338 154 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 429 2240 6214 1606

Date: 2021-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85340 9570 110 488 221 14 0 0
OW 39 194 24 241 212 9 0 0
VODI 0 104 16 216 383 52 0 0
ODI 0 24 11 136 374 161 14 0
CDI 0 1 4 83 358 327 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 299 2084 4927 3003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85341 9250 103 487 262 12 0 0
OW 38 324 28 215 234 21 1 0
VODI 0 185 5 125 341 106 22 0
ODI 0 91 13 97 188 134 13 0
CDI 0 39 14 158 305 150 17 0
VCDI 0 4 2 118 517 2224 4913 3003

Date: 2021-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84835 9814 97 432 274 85 0 0
OW 43 227 23 209 200 67 0 0
VODI 0 119 8 151 310 149 0 0
ODI 0 50 10 98 276 180 13 0
CDI 0 35 4 99 322 347 57 0
VCDI 0 2 2 70 381 1275 4122 4714
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84836 9389 77 386 268 78 0 0
OW 42 412 30 153 240 82 0 0
VODI 0 183 16 185 297 193 2 0
ODI 0 113 7 70 135 186 15 0
CDI 0 94 5 101 228 223 39 0
VCDI 0 56 9 164 595 1341 4136 4714

Date: 2021-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84214 10225 95 430 247 94 0 0
OW 44 290 31 175 177 37 0 0
VODI 0 129 15 205 315 113 0 0
ODI 0 62 5 80 220 209 9 0
CDI 0 47 9 60 296 415 34 0
VCDI 0 17 6 89 391 1613 3444 5258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84214 9609 82 375 227 86 0 0
OW 44 536 31 160 235 42 0 0
VODI 0 232 18 192 331 170 1 0
ODI 0 118 6 65 133 203 21 0
CDI 0 131 6 64 173 267 42 0
VCDI 0 144 18 183 547 1713 3423 5258


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