Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-11-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92099 6143 48 277 230 33 0 0
OW 10 109 15 126 94 27 0 0
VODI 0 43 9 115 171 52 1 0
ODI 0 21 4 44 189 70 10 0
CDI 0 13 2 40 167 179 46 0
VCDI 0 2 0 20 114 1008 4192 3377
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91485 6548 49 225 257 28 0 0
OW 13 140 18 153 77 57 0 0
VODI 0 39 9 107 176 56 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 33 209 44 7 0
CDI 0 19 1 41 222 130 39 1
VCDI 0 14 5 33 130 860 3643 4207
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90259 7620 71 331 178 55 0 0
OW 13 96 22 163 77 32 0 0
VODI 0 29 9 149 163 43 0 0
ODI 0 13 1 63 226 74 0 0
CDI 0 12 2 52 158 110 7 0
VCDI 0 3 0 38 277 2521 5408 825
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89246 8328 75 336 130 44 0 0
OW 32 130 27 191 92 20 0 0
VODI 0 34 9 164 141 29 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 56 227 39 0 0
CDI 0 12 1 42 252 99 1 0
VCDI 0 17 3 59 376 2259 5263 1354
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89249 8351 82 347 138 51 0 0
OW 29 101 19 186 77 11 0 0
VODI 0 36 10 161 143 24 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 46 213 34 0 0
CDI 0 11 1 44 258 100 2 0
VCDI 0 19 3 64 389 2270 5262 1354

Date: 2021-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89039 8062 76 332 110 67 0 0
OW 28 188 30 224 196 37 0 0
VODI 0 61 13 149 151 56 0 0
ODI 0 22 2 68 141 70 0 0
CDI 0 10 4 43 218 180 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 82 367 1487 4890 2695
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89039 8104 87 413 161 77 0 0
OW 28 153 20 145 153 30 0 0
VODI 0 50 11 148 141 43 0 0
ODI 0 27 2 61 148 59 0 0
CDI 0 9 5 44 194 186 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 87 386 1502 4892 2695

Date: 2021-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88597 8088 76 352 48 14 0 0
OW 29 202 28 226 132 27 0 0
VODI 0 38 17 229 231 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 127 223 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 320 253 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 306 1503 5126 2670
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88597 7814 78 492 141 36 0 0
OW 29 312 20 146 156 47 0 0
VODI 0 165 14 143 230 53 0 0
ODI 0 30 6 98 138 63 0 0
CDI 0 7 5 67 194 121 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 401 1642 5125 2670

Date: 2021-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88143 8388 73 370 72 1 0 0
OW 32 181 24 173 138 17 0 0
VODI 0 49 21 209 192 80 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 154 165 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 88 306 126 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 497 1804 4380 3292
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88142 7847 64 297 89 11 0 0
OW 33 414 14 238 120 37 0 0
VODI 0 254 21 196 259 40 0 0
ODI 0 78 11 95 205 58 0 0
CDI 0 26 11 104 182 105 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 79 515 1882 4380 3292

Date: 2021-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86770 9017 74 360 154 1 0 0
OW 34 263 30 201 207 16 0 0
VODI 0 81 20 220 243 76 6 0
ODI 0 22 5 139 207 102 0 0
CDI 0 6 6 89 261 180 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 401 2163 3818 3890
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86768 8470 61 295 135 7 0 0
OW 36 490 26 184 98 36 6 0
VODI 0 279 23 243 372 70 0 0
ODI 0 93 5 121 225 118 0 0
CDI 0 55 13 125 179 133 0 0
VCDI 0 2 7 78 464 2174 3819 3890


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