Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 102515 14325 145 742 265 33 0 0 OW 11 676 84 649 442 100 0 0 VODI 0 170 46 611 858 503 58 0 ODI 0 24 5 184 703 771 174 0 CDI 0 13 2 62 630 1807 347 0 VCDI 0 2 0 20 278 7959 21783 30051	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-31:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 100720 14771 149 613 381 28 0 0 OW 13 824 85 743 540 76 0 0 VODI 0 250 50 464 904 306 4 0 ODI 0 28 4 190 711 631 324 0 CDI 0 19 1 60 691 1030 911 1 VCDI 0 14 5 33 334 5248 21313 34579	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 98819 16317 194 848 328 55 0 0 OW 13 563 92 744 278 33 0 0 VODI 0 139 36 622 807 116 0 0 ODI 0 32 3 144 1059 437 58 0 CDI 0 14 4 83 536 1476 377 47 VCDI 0 3 0 72 592 8435 22689 30983	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 97838 16112 177 738 384 44 0 0 OW 61 908 66 610 444 91 0 0 VODI 0 490 63 770 546 158 9 0 ODI 0 151 29 377 771 360 48 8 CDI 0 46 6 182 1103 916 190 47 VCDI 0 17 3 126 1335 10087 23159 28578	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 97868 16212 186 768 362 101 0 0 OW 31 779 56 581 422 38 0 0 VODI 0 501 67 765 629 165 21 0 ODI 0 151 26 355 687 346 60 5 CDI 0 55 6 179 1009 821 225 52 VCDI 0 26 3 155 1474 10185 23100 28576

Date: 2021-11-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 97039 15311 174 681 308 106 0 0 OW 96 1068 78 689 667 95 0 0 VODI 0 356 55 909 688 139 0 0 ODI 0 96 27 512 762 264 16 0 CDI 0 66 19 279 918 1004 184 1 VCDI 0 19 6 289 1880 11148 22348 28751	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 97088 15434 191 831 361 116 0 0 OW 47 929 62 538 450 81 0 0 VODI 0 318 50 905 859 154 0 0 ODI 0 127 22 461 734 277 34 0 CDI 0 49 20 240 838 908 235 0 VCDI 0 59 14 384 1981 11220 22279 28752

Date: 2021-11-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 96437 14903 181 856 193 14 0 0 OW 29 475 90 745 320 40 0 0 VODI 0 122 34 1005 914 150 0 0 ODI 0 30 12 373 1813 434 10 0 CDI 0 29 2 87 1145 1206 134 7 VCDI 0 16 4 52 933 7453 23051 33749	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 96437 13805 155 1051 455 70 0 0 OW 29 1133 73 581 570 113 0 0 VODI 0 492 51 524 1186 294 15 0 ODI 0 58 21 514 936 322 51 0 CDI 0 15 9 234 848 716 234 5 VCDI 0 72 14 214 1323 7782 22895 33751

Date: 2021-11-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 95332 15119 162 779 305 1 0 0 OW 128 507 76 638 366 17 0 0 VODI 0 133 44 628 902 120 0 0 ODI 0 15 8 221 1186 417 2 0 CDI 0 0 0 237 1323 1314 153 26 VCDI 0 7 5 87 1267 5975 23020 36528	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 95386 13616 129 610 366 11 0 0 OW 74 1256 56 593 453 66 0 0 VODI 0 746 64 688 1210 219 0 0 ODI 0 130 29 264 987 500 32 0 CDI 0 26 11 210 828 758 206 41 VCDI 0 7 6 225 1505 6290 22937 36513

Date: 2021-11-12:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 93728 14856 143 760 454 23 0 0 OW 94 886 79 583 563 45 0 0 VODI 42 301 51 599 753 200 6 0 ODI 0 45 11 236 806 444 16 0 CDI 0 6 6 136 726 1475 132 21 VCDI 0 0 0 59 1416 6653 18901 41793	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 93754 13635 115 694 495 59 0 0 OW 90 1089 48 412 385 100 10 0 VODI 20 934 64 559 1023 315 34 0 ODI 0 283 32 333 756 877 91 1 CDI 0 112 18 201 506 1092 234 54 VCDI 0 41 13 174 1553 6397 18686 41759

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