Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-10-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 606 10 62 7 0 0 0
OW 0 43 4 63 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 6 85 116 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 4 44 250 27 0 0
CDI 0 13 0 28 131 105 78 4
VCDI 0 10 5 33 128 1476 9360 24134
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 597 10 70 8 0 0 0
OW 0 46 3 65 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 10 72 136 14 2 0
ODI 0 14 1 39 150 44 41 0
CDI 0 17 0 34 156 71 39 48
VCDI 0 14 5 35 180 1479 9356 24090

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 438 20 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 7 43 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 115 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 119 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 102 176 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 542 1189 235
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 410 21 72 34 0 0 0
OW 0 46 6 17 58 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 85 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 80 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 82 115 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 605 1178 235

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 97 570 10 46 1 0 0 0
OW 0 99 14 164 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 7 308 231 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 410 174 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 152 383 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 2329 2960 1908
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 97 553 8 191 90 0 0 0
OW 0 86 12 145 166 2 0 0
VODI 0 34 8 102 205 70 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 64 117 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 172 162 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 130 2550 2960 1908

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 94 2202 44 117 22 0 0 0
OW 0 64 19 197 55 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 115 176 35 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 30 150 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 73 117 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 166 862 932 79
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 93 2125 30 121 55 0 0 0
OW 1 118 15 87 39 11 0 0
VODI 0 20 16 145 81 38 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 51 114 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 112 88 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 241 896 925 79

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 87 98 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 147 2361 4517
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 16 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 68 90 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 150 2351 4535

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 25 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 85 67 117
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 270 2816 1851
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 20 11 53
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 76 55 180
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 284 2833 1735

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 627 1944 10 39 5 0 0 0
OW 0 69 16 79 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 8 62 150 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 133 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 699 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 609 1579 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 627 1800 7 33 15 0 0 0
OW 0 158 14 79 63 25 0 0
VODI 0 70 11 44 154 115 65 0
ODI 0 0 2 26 64 166 213 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 368 292 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 755 1151 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8955 2318 15 9 0 0 0 0
OW 2 6 4 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8955 2323 18 11 0 0 0 0
OW 2 1 1 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6701 2585 16 164 182 13 0 0
OW 0 40 12 62 41 18 0 0
VODI 0 7 2 65 75 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 16 83 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 82 105 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 262 1036 25
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6701 2553 15 164 201 27 0 0
OW 0 62 7 52 45 33 0 0
VODI 0 15 8 59 63 47 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 24 60 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 83 54 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 286 1027 25

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12520 468 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12520 468 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2986 2076 31 145 5 0 0 0
OW 0 147 15 127 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 1 8 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 0 8 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 8 3 14 18 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 32 55 3 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2986 1920 27 163 5 0 0 0
OW 0 150 16 119 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 226 7 29 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 0 1 11 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 56 3 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6656 1906 10 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6656 1906 10 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19236 950 5 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19236 950 5 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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