Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-10-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 1995 23 84 0 0 0 0
OW 0 182 32 166 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 15 223 167 11 0 0
ODI 0 16 9 90 301 46 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 47 302 350 29 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 187 3270 8508 20724
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 1777 22 92 23 0 0 0
OW 0 281 16 127 38 9 0 0
VODI 0 154 23 163 182 31 0 0
ODI 0 40 12 110 211 64 7 0
CDI 0 13 7 77 245 340 36 0
VCDI 0 2 2 52 293 3233 8494 20725

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 786 20 49 0 0 0 0
OW 4 66 6 45 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 5 78 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 26 33 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 127 73 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 134 911 666 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 770 23 76 6 0 0 0
OW 3 48 1 31 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 69 3 10 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 4 37 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 50 46 73 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 249 911 666 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1339 23 71 4 0 0 0
OW 0 159 41 158 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 10 246 140 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 281 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 104 359 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 680 3533 2693
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1394 44 139 39 1 0 0
OW 0 93 15 154 76 20 0 0
VODI 0 20 15 162 144 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 159 72 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 126 225 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 720 3529 2693

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 903 1984 22 94 2 0 0 0
OW 2 67 26 118 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 93 150 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 205 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 67 283 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 579 920 31
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 904 1852 19 123 47 0 0 0
OW 1 141 14 66 89 10 0 0
VODI 0 59 18 88 123 50 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 34 133 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 128 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 657 920 31

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 885 19 68 4 0 0 0
OW 0 142 29 142 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 3 140 161 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 690 178 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 159 1536 233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 252 2016 510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 647 23 63 23 12 0 0
OW 0 270 18 133 99 76 0 0
VODI 0 118 10 156 641 599 54 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 250 669 267 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 388 545 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 246 1383 510

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57 3176 54 182 8 0 0 0
OW 0 252 29 289 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 5 160 267 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 14 286 230 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 49 169 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 7 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57 2992 55 281 52 0 0 0
OW 0 370 25 249 262 73 0 0
VODI 0 83 6 81 272 206 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 28 41 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 32 38 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 28 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3278 1771 24 87 0 0 0 0
OW 2 52 6 141 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 49 173 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 176 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 362 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3278 1819 31 206 54 0 0 0
OW 2 6 0 56 103 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 19 130 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 119 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 213 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 159 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10597 727 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10597 727 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7464 2408 19 209 41 7 0 0
OW 0 43 11 46 54 28 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 47 54 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 66 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 72 270 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 612 130 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7464 2403 21 246 90 61 0 0
OW 0 28 10 22 57 35 0 0
VODI 0 19 2 25 37 43 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 13 33 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 49 101 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 695 130 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5086 608 5 1 0 0 0 0
OW 4 5 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 87 2 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5067 602 5 1 0 0 0 0
OW 23 10 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 85 2 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7023 1553 7 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7023 1553 7 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 109 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 109 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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