Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-10-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96170 4142 46 163 166 64 0 0
OW 0 64 7 93 44 63 0 0
VODI 0 22 2 72 65 77 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 26 83 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 20 110 179 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 1343 3485 2443
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95207 4638 46 329 184 26 0 0
OW 0 99 14 121 99 80 0 0
VODI 0 14 3 68 92 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 35 86 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 127 186 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1203 2442 3792
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94981 4559 50 318 210 0 0 0
OW 0 34 10 73 161 28 0 0
VODI 0 13 3 58 176 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 27 96 168 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 129 290 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 821 3519 3249
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95043 4541 38 230 152 0 0 0
OW 0 95 6 66 133 1 0 0
VODI 0 54 8 63 168 38 0 0
ODI 0 15 4 57 88 97 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 33 123 271 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 113 1622 3958 2072
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95043 4520 33 209 217 0 0 0
OW 0 114 11 77 102 16 0 0
VODI 0 50 8 74 142 38 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 51 76 109 0 0
CDI 0 9 0 29 115 248 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 125 1618 3958 2072

Date: 2021-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95207 4292 42 196 78 0 0 0
OW 0 164 9 69 106 4 0 0
VODI 0 54 9 91 134 21 0 0
ODI 0 22 3 68 108 53 0 0
CDI 0 16 0 40 146 161 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 153 1508 2058 4270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95207 4325 39 208 128 0 0 0
OW 0 128 11 42 91 6 0 0
VODI 0 53 10 112 122 31 0 0
ODI 0 22 3 62 84 50 0 0
CDI 0 14 0 35 138 145 0 0
VCDI 0 6 0 23 162 1515 2058 4270

Date: 2021-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94721 4532 36 248 41 7 0 0
OW 1 89 17 120 63 28 0 0
VODI 0 28 7 123 113 38 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 56 158 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 184 332 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 3 82 1508 2287 4184
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94722 4450 37 276 90 61 0 0
OW 0 111 13 79 68 35 0 0
VODI 0 66 8 102 101 54 0 0
ODI 0 16 3 49 98 81 0 0
CDI 0 10 1 38 137 123 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 29 147 1620 2287 4185

Date: 2021-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94103 4856 44 369 60 0 0 0
OW 2 84 12 109 124 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 7 98 149 9 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 51 169 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 190 268 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 96 2272 5275 616
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94104 4750 30 326 87 0 0 0
OW 1 159 19 80 123 15 0 0
VODI 0 49 11 113 154 33 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 68 91 92 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 40 168 133 13 0
VCDI 0 8 1 35 165 2325 5270 616

Date: 2021-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93841 4918 47 273 96 3 0 0
OW 5 123 13 135 93 11 0 0
VODI 0 44 10 98 141 39 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 69 118 41 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 39 197 146 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 181 2356 3369 2662
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93841 4907 45 235 95 11 0 0
OW 5 113 13 110 64 30 0 0
VODI 0 51 13 144 206 42 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 70 107 68 0 0
CDI 0 8 0 31 153 134 0 0
VCDI 0 8 2 40 201 2311 3369 2662


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