Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-10-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115782 19465 207 816 201 66 0 0
OW 3 1380 190 1206 476 83 0 0
VODI 0 224 51 712 1082 407 0 0
ODI 0 9 10 217 846 850 95 0
CDI 0 0 1 64 658 1888 632 11
VCDI 0 0 0 13 188 4825 16351 18039
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114395 18493 177 936 275 26 0 0
OW 22 2063 150 1234 702 103 0 0
VODI 0 227 71 763 1190 501 0 0
ODI 0 12 6 270 788 952 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 703 1642 569 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 293 4175 14715 21420
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112808 19665 233 885 293 0 0 0
OW 19 1101 136 1147 415 37 0 0
VODI 0 116 34 984 1149 114 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 210 1404 521 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 860 2662 192 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 3424 15713 22850
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112039 18468 162 630 286 8 0 0
OW 34 1790 175 1145 569 28 0 0
VODI 14 290 69 1233 1011 280 1 0
ODI 0 31 10 451 841 549 64 0
CDI 0 5 0 141 1081 1476 334 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 309 4722 16583 22213
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112058 18574 183 791 474 16 0 0
OW 12 1633 141 929 509 43 0 0
VODI 17 332 80 1295 921 326 16 0
ODI 0 36 12 405 840 505 147 0
CDI 0 9 0 164 917 1456 404 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 436 4717 16415 22213

Date: 2021-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111055 17423 190 636 185 3 0 0
OW 6 1678 145 1148 765 85 0 0
VODI 0 483 94 981 1559 388 3 0
ODI 0 74 29 362 1080 611 78 0
CDI 0 34 3 140 996 1020 276 0
VCDI 0 2 2 54 785 5610 13602 25463
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111057 17810 204 815 337 2 0 0
OW 4 1301 141 944 643 105 0 0
VODI 0 483 91 1044 1572 413 5 0
ODI 0 64 21 321 1135 601 116 0
CDI 0 30 4 129 838 1119 296 0
VCDI 0 6 2 68 845 5477 13542 25463

Date: 2021-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109354 17341 224 853 59 7 0 0
OW 13 968 180 1106 279 28 0 0
VODI 0 172 49 1037 1123 90 0 0
ODI 0 24 11 192 2038 664 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 63 926 3402 282 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 341 6471 15775 23958
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109336 16645 258 1235 334 74 0 0
OW 29 1247 99 839 724 235 0 0
VODI 2 523 78 705 1529 1025 54 0
ODI 0 77 22 271 956 1086 281 0
CDI 0 14 8 152 599 1508 598 0
VCDI 0 2 2 60 624 6734 15124 23959

Date: 2021-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109253 14598 185 973 240 0 0 0
OW 19 1430 144 1001 996 45 0 0
VODI 0 291 71 897 1197 292 0 0
ODI 0 32 27 426 1035 837 22 0
CDI 0 0 2 183 1217 1895 309 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 653 7226 20068 21469
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109255 14132 176 1100 576 62 0 0
OW 17 1513 127 757 934 274 0 0
VODI 0 566 74 895 1314 949 56 0
ODI 0 121 38 445 745 1303 576 0
CDI 0 11 13 235 973 981 876 1
VCDI 0 8 1 63 796 6726 18891 21468

Date: 2021-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107700 13572 170 800 211 4 0 0
OW 18 1243 121 1239 1396 433 0 0
VODI 0 414 69 748 1366 960 57 0
ODI 0 96 36 426 762 863 87 0
CDI 0 20 11 280 957 1308 456 2
VCDI 0 0 2 83 1286 8094 16439 25319
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107707 13324 192 1110 861 213 0 0
OW 11 1123 88 849 1043 530 38 0
VODI 0 628 71 839 1281 1110 224 0
ODI 0 161 33 395 724 1088 788 14
CDI 0 66 15 199 808 1004 979 88
VCDI 0 43 10 184 1261 7717 15010 25219


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