Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-10-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 120191 18900 179 758 249 0 0 0
OW 0 1236 104 877 506 76 0 0
VODI 0 273 59 736 1078 322 0 0
ODI 0 64 14 206 1211 2145 26 0
CDI 0 28 13 107 703 3168 943 15
VCDI 0 8 3 65 394 4418 16193 11780
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 119228 18366 176 722 126 0 0 0
OW 74 1665 114 1083 669 63 0 0
VODI 0 373 73 731 968 366 0 0
ODI 0 52 26 264 794 1676 33 0
CDI 0 3 6 113 616 2812 1744 2
VCDI 0 0 0 11 323 2141 16446 15189
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 118837 19350 177 646 157 0 0 0
OW 11 886 141 853 296 7 0 0
VODI 0 146 53 909 961 67 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 186 1366 413 55 4
CDI 0 0 0 37 749 2453 590 13
VCDI 0 0 0 12 218 2368 14932 20143
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 117983 18596 173 611 189 48 0 0
OW 19 1283 124 885 508 71 0 0
VODI 0 233 63 708 889 420 0 0
ODI 0 14 10 230 947 670 93 0
CDI 0 2 2 51 637 2145 502 8
VCDI 0 0 0 19 206 4125 15895 18689
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 117901 18477 186 755 277 50 0 0
OW 101 1310 111 683 434 77 0 0
VODI 0 323 65 775 917 392 0 0
ODI 0 16 8 231 876 774 64 0
CDI 0 2 2 42 680 1886 399 8
VCDI 0 0 0 18 192 4300 16027 18689

Date: 2021-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 115327 18601 178 972 215 34 0 0
OW 24 1761 172 1333 568 57 0 0
VODI 0 273 60 747 1145 389 0 0
ODI 0 22 18 253 833 891 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 104 751 1701 499 4
VCDI 0 0 1 15 371 4666 16183 18821
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 115346 18770 208 1242 305 41 0 0
OW 5 1475 147 990 432 72 0 0
VODI 0 385 56 847 1259 359 0 0
ODI 0 27 17 246 809 815 97 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 757 1691 366 4
VCDI 0 0 1 16 321 4760 16278 18821

Date: 2021-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112682 20402 220 769 105 0 0 0
OW 15 1167 161 1159 340 7 0 0
VODI 0 111 40 1015 1206 94 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 117 1703 478 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 559 3202 203 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 3154 14863 23209
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112672 19104 212 1165 503 59 0 0
OW 21 2067 118 837 687 217 0 0
VODI 4 481 75 792 1346 642 8 0
ODI 0 27 14 211 697 943 108 0
CDI 0 1 2 54 597 1583 547 11
VCDI 0 0 0 5 146 3491 14403 23198

Date: 2021-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112045 19571 201 854 250 0 0 0
OW 32 1335 178 1184 492 6 0 0
VODI 5 218 63 1054 1074 165 2 0
ODI 0 6 2 374 1103 488 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1088 2086 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 120 3945 15946 22888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112060 18163 191 933 514 8 0 0
OW 7 2204 139 1069 639 176 0 0
VODI 15 699 97 1130 1252 673 4 0
ODI 0 63 17 303 787 855 128 0
CDI 0 1 0 76 722 1193 404 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 213 3785 15640 22888

Date: 2021-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 111517 17950 158 651 235 7 0 0
OW 1 1928 195 1144 677 41 0 0
VODI 0 328 88 1033 1380 310 6 0
ODI 0 69 14 377 866 450 163 0
CDI 0 15 5 144 1024 1120 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 601 4906 15516 23765
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 111483 17021 184 967 600 51 0 0
OW 35 1937 88 593 503 185 46 0
VODI 0 1086 132 1200 1685 555 273 0
ODI 0 188 31 334 783 805 272 0
CDI 0 58 25 223 646 1077 402 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 566 4161 15028 23765


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