Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-09-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98523 3413 8 26 12 0 0 0
OW 0 233 13 27 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 23 128 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 153 106 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 329 238 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 2414 3083 189
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98670 3026 10 22 29 0 0 0
OW 0 184 11 62 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 153 8 56 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 24 14 119 86 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 292 78 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 88 2108 2881 1031
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96515 5032 28 102 44 0 0 0
OW 0 134 6 39 70 4 0 0
VODI 0 24 15 109 81 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 120 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 151 256 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 1133 4209 822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98077 3160 25 159 84 0 0 0
OW 0 59 4 91 141 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 7 43 176 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 113 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 90 321 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 832 3327 2169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98077 3170 24 159 89 0 0 0
OW 0 48 6 103 137 1 0 0
VODI 0 12 6 31 188 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 116 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 75 364 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 804 3327 2169

Date: 2021-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97122 4075 25 141 46 0 0 0
OW 0 96 7 97 120 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 69 169 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 26 129 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 127 350 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 797 4449 1094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97122 4095 26 153 45 0 0 0
OW 0 79 7 111 100 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 5 46 203 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 24 131 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 102 387 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 771 4442 1094

Date: 2021-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97654 3271 27 131 79 0 0 0
OW 1 57 9 91 96 2 0 0
VODI 0 16 8 32 167 13 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 24 129 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 62 427 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 393 3797 2460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97655 3271 30 158 108 0 0 0
OW 0 49 7 61 150 13 0 0
VODI 0 19 3 30 161 87 0 0
ODI 0 6 7 15 52 149 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 48 286 119 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 26 379 3721 2460

Date: 2021-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96331 4400 34 164 116 0 0 0
OW 0 90 7 51 77 1 0 0
VODI 0 21 5 83 104 10 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 37 126 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 27 171 157 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 111 1312 2988 2632
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96331 4371 29 144 161 0 0 0
OW 0 97 7 51 92 11 0 0
VODI 0 42 9 88 99 58 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 54 91 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 29 157 255 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 105 1108 2978 2632

Date: 2021-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96170 4142 46 163 166 64 0 0
OW 0 64 7 93 44 63 0 0
VODI 0 22 2 72 65 77 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 26 83 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 20 110 179 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 1343 3485 2443
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96170 4137 45 180 194 111 0 0
OW 0 74 7 76 18 90 0 0
VODI 0 19 4 64 79 93 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 31 85 84 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 108 205 158 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1218 3306 2443


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