Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-09-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-09-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 891 3303 20 91 2 0 0 0
OW 0 428 44 268 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 29 391 230 9 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 148 869 146 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 427 1739 113 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 5031 14012 8539
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 891 2804 18 162 7 0 0 0
OW 0 563 23 150 63 4 0 0
VODI 0 319 30 252 312 102 0 0
ODI 0 139 15 162 586 522 0 0
CDI 0 34 7 170 368 995 223 33
VCDI 0 0 0 4 218 5302 13902 8522

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 719 24 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 138 9 37 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 8 166 22 1 0 0
ODI 0 15 3 27 73 7 0 0
CDI 0 10 8 60 163 277 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 411 647 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 631 25 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 110 7 60 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 6 98 20 1 0 0
ODI 0 50 1 47 28 3 0 0
CDI 0 22 5 48 113 211 63 0
VCDI 0 19 8 39 223 481 637 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 279 2581 37 122 0 0 0 0
OW 0 62 20 240 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 354 287 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 2389 217 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 127 1163 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 984 952 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 279 2621 50 361 27 0 0 0
OW 0 21 5 207 241 15 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 135 1617 265 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 782 374 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 151 756 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 954 948 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2113 2405 25 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 23 145 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 141 241 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 502 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2113 2330 26 76 30 0 0 0
OW 0 83 15 142 181 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 8 103 372 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 160 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2922 3187 25 92 4 0 0 0
OW 0 76 19 175 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 3 111 168 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 245 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 110 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 18 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2922 3160 33 241 62 0 0 0
OW 0 106 12 90 112 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 45 178 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 89 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 82 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 24 18 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3267 1977 9 36 8 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 1 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 1 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3267 1985 11 38 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4389 1524 6 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 100 19 23 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 74 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 103 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 7 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4389 1534 9 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 12 16 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 7 52 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 30 50 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 57 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11092 238 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11092 238 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9306 2005 17 62 28 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 36 39 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 61 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 77 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 29 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9306 1992 12 39 33 0 0 0
OW 0 13 7 58 28 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 89 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 57 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12573 415 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12573 415 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5214 494 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 61 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5214 490 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 46 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7224 1356 5 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7224 1356 5 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19882 315 6 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19882 315 6 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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