Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-09-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98603 2931 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 423 10 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 265 23 223 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 29 7 259 484 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 587 1812 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2157 1147 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99243 2178 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 386 8 13 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 299 24 110 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 47 11 255 295 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 574 1005 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 1880 2541 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99094 2634 13 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 178 13 101 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 17 245 52 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 495 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 260 957 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1741 2791 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99432 2456 15 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 223 22 61 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 17 233 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 351 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 402 748 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1701 3047 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99432 2432 11 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 241 29 91 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 14 257 50 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 354 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 392 752 201 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1695 3007 4

Date: 2021-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99477 2504 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 287 18 30 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 23 161 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 283 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 416 785 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 2667 2157 38
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99477 2364 6 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 365 16 36 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 146 22 166 73 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 280 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 410 849 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 2599 2157 38

Date: 2021-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99131 3084 9 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 171 24 56 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 13 270 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 338 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 176 778 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3248 1578 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99131 2784 12 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 318 15 60 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 161 18 152 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 132 153 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 322 489 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 3506 1545 0

Date: 2021-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98653 3474 6 21 5 0 0 0
OW 0 201 24 39 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 12 198 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 87 205 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 246 408 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 3534 1893 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98653 3117 3 12 1 0 0 0
OW 0 297 6 10 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 264 18 80 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 46 17 197 96 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 326 292 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 3651 1893 0

Date: 2021-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98523 3413 8 26 12 0 0 0
OW 0 233 13 27 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 23 128 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 153 106 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 329 238 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 2414 3083 189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98523 3047 8 23 7 0 0 0
OW 0 258 8 20 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 265 9 68 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 151 10 98 70 0 0 0
CDI 0 34 11 124 225 42 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 166 2610 3081 189


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