Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-08-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97078 3279 21 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 170 28 173 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 20 435 280 6 0 0
ODI 0 44 9 272 975 1210 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 32 340 3551 932 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 39 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97724 2630 16 70 0 0 0 0
OW 0 208 21 151 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 126 36 491 311 44 0 0
ODI 0 42 9 330 814 1067 254 0
CDI 0 4 2 48 373 2087 2208 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 7 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97284 3123 21 96 0 0 0 0
OW 0 233 19 136 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 39 659 157 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 4 238 928 175 0 0
CDI 0 6 2 3 252 2263 1434 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 197 1684 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96508 3864 24 107 8 0 0 0
OW 0 255 17 125 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 134 42 589 244 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 7 217 777 215 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 5 321 2241 1598 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 105 1631 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96508 3917 25 120 14 0 0 0
OW 0 217 20 124 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 38 583 287 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 7 210 729 205 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 6 326 2260 1534 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 96 1695 0

Date: 2021-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97522 2883 26 123 3 0 0 0
OW 0 268 25 165 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 193 36 530 280 4 0 0
ODI 0 46 5 205 623 272 0 0
CDI 0 18 1 4 391 2480 1280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 288 1416 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97522 2941 28 144 0 0 0 0
OW 0 225 21 155 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 174 37 535 327 7 0 0
ODI 0 60 7 188 572 239 0 0
CDI 0 8 0 5 396 2576 1317 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 222 1379 0

Date: 2021-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97083 3526 25 64 1 0 0 0
OW 0 359 30 93 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 133 34 686 170 0 0 0
ODI 0 44 3 103 960 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 314 4667 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 360 322 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97083 3474 30 92 3 0 0 0
OW 0 245 27 137 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 265 27 541 267 8 0 0
ODI 0 67 8 163 659 120 0 0
CDI 0 11 0 13 461 4000 307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 959 76 0

Date: 2021-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97703 3042 17 53 0 0 0 0
OW 10 313 28 139 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 184 42 656 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 54 2 181 722 178 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 16 458 4568 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 313 212 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97698 2888 17 74 3 0 0 0
OW 4 276 23 149 10 0 0 0
VODI 11 332 40 532 210 5 0 0
ODI 0 79 9 222 493 164 0 0
CDI 0 19 0 68 583 3926 198 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 964 70 0

Date: 2021-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97689 3145 20 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 372 27 101 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 266 43 586 103 2 0 0
ODI 0 62 2 262 718 188 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 791 2989 1036 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 292 297 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97689 2896 22 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 388 19 123 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 438 43 455 130 5 0 0
ODI 0 110 8 302 436 110 0 0
CDI 0 13 0 69 1048 2522 988 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 834 345 0


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