Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-08-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11520 5649 96 348 99 0 0 0
OW 0 238 44 491 131 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 14 709 1267 11 0 0
ODI 0 17 0 129 5358 629 0 0
CDI 0 16 1 12 914 8469 1854 0
VCDI 0 41 8 96 184 3875 3381 225
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11228 6297 102 392 18 0 0 0
OW 0 226 42 620 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 16 1104 1323 1 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 530 4605 392 7 0
CDI 0 12 2 12 1939 7184 2148 533
VCDI 0 58 13 92 176 663 3823 2146
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11210 6486 90 479 30 0 0 0
OW 0 221 55 471 49 2 0 0
VODI 0 33 18 1819 1155 13 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 219 4902 337 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 1768 5622 2197 0
VCDI 0 42 5 50 103 2566 5653 208
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11093 6655 90 499 21 0 0 0
OW 0 319 58 502 55 4 0 0
VODI 0 45 19 2466 1219 16 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 285 3930 562 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 2061 5978 2784 59
VCDI 0 18 3 84 192 2628 4189 11
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11093 6679 94 575 28 0 0 0
OW 0 289 51 457 52 3 0 0
VODI 0 51 22 2195 979 15 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 525 4116 631 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 5 2093 5486 2408 56
VCDI 0 18 3 86 210 3053 4568 14

Date: 2021-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11989 6034 103 461 62 0 0 0
OW 0 342 45 533 124 7 0 0
VODI 0 129 50 3023 1229 76 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 315 2789 636 161 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 1863 5087 3121 1494
VCDI 0 13 3 72 175 409 3126 2373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11989 5994 112 571 79 0 0 0
OW 0 386 37 480 110 10 0 0
VODI 0 123 47 2642 1129 92 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 636 2833 616 154 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 1900 4995 2855 1440
VCDI 0 13 3 71 191 502 3399 2427

Date: 2021-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11961 6355 80 411 21 0 0 0
OW 19 422 41 446 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 258 77 3761 679 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 230 4736 251 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 21 1301 6245 280 0
VCDI 0 1 0 49 110 3471 4488 88
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11971 6179 90 639 54 0 0 0
OW 9 506 31 501 101 0 0 0
VODI 0 348 75 2979 1041 23 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 670 2460 271 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 70 3107 5243 3331 88
VCDI 0 6 1 59 139 4432 1437 0

Date: 2021-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11980 6491 81 463 52 0 0 0
OW 15 605 48 520 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 402 94 3472 846 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 385 3692 400 68 0
CDI 0 3 0 62 3605 3192 1084 3
VCDI 0 22 5 44 120 1503 4943 1573
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11994 6342 82 677 90 0 0 0
OW 1 576 45 521 154 3 0 0
VODI 0 571 92 2809 892 99 29 0
ODI 0 9 4 766 1858 227 118 0
CDI 0 2 0 105 5102 2694 3803 1042
VCDI 0 23 5 68 309 2075 2145 534

Date: 2021-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13062 5666 70 377 24 11 0 0
OW 14 869 62 685 31 8 0 0
VODI 0 500 101 3461 569 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 397 3521 260 0 0
CDI 0 15 1 35 3739 4057 567 0
VCDI 0 8 3 70 115 2095 4216 1247
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13076 5527 74 644 22 13 0 0
OW 0 762 41 697 81 4 0 0
VODI 0 729 110 2747 798 9 0 0
ODI 0 17 9 766 1747 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 99 4868 3943 2898 656
VCDI 0 23 2 72 483 2347 1885 591


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