Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-08-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114982 18299 194 800 21 0 0 0
OW 0 1325 185 1709 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 232 87 2976 2028 31 0 0
ODI 0 9 8 424 7301 1910 37 0
CDI 0 39 1 71 2498 14906 3226 0
VCDI 0 9 7 39 230 6395 6837 105
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116283 17501 190 921 84 0 0 0
OW 0 1297 200 1910 400 0 0 0
VODI 0 290 95 2498 2483 27 0 0
ODI 0 33 8 462 7035 1775 10 0
CDI 0 43 7 100 3174 15334 2002 0
VCDI 0 6 4 60 353 6031 5460 972
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116423 18838 242 863 15 0 0 0
OW 0 764 177 1663 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 75 2899 1380 3 0 0
ODI 0 43 3 328 9926 952 0 0
CDI 0 30 7 32 1892 17502 2733 0
VCDI 0 12 6 82 205 3528 6194 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117158 18594 210 768 50 0 0 0
OW 0 943 168 1782 176 0 0 0
VODI 0 192 64 2321 2237 21 0 0
ODI 0 49 5 282 8166 2332 0 0
CDI 0 25 2 47 1500 16262 4530 0
VCDI 0 28 5 112 235 2093 6258 433
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117158 18534 228 1027 67 0 0 0
OW 0 960 141 1551 227 0 0 0
VODI 0 230 73 2256 2311 30 0 0
ODI 0 45 5 320 7801 2346 3 0
CDI 0 29 1 43 1722 16081 4513 0
VCDI 0 33 6 115 236 2251 6272 433

Date: 2021-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118509 17862 182 595 46 0 0 0
OW 48 1208 172 1615 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 303 91 2515 2281 23 0 0
ODI 0 59 9 693 7282 2491 7 0
CDI 0 24 2 43 1749 13363 7627 344
VCDI 0 51 8 92 157 1926 4482 983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118526 17878 204 850 69 0 0 0
OW 31 1181 144 1471 261 0 0 0
VODI 0 309 97 2431 2287 37 0 0
ODI 0 61 9 673 6950 2385 12 0
CDI 0 23 2 35 1996 13174 7746 343
VCDI 0 55 8 93 158 2207 4358 984

Date: 2021-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119332 17989 176 649 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1499 208 1053 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 188 105 3820 1187 5 0 0
ODI 0 41 6 492 8374 472 0 0
CDI 0 7 1 35 1660 13049 2532 0
VCDI 0 54 7 72 113 2312 10746 768
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119318 17566 197 1017 64 0 0 0
OW 14 1456 139 1153 317 0 0 0
VODI 0 598 138 2511 2169 101 0 0
ODI 0 75 17 1298 6123 1550 359 0
CDI 0 28 4 50 2586 11531 8964 72
VCDI 0 55 8 92 171 2656 3955 696

Date: 2021-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118968 18830 176 828 43 0 0 0
OW 0 1439 172 1175 107 1 0 0
VODI 0 299 122 3738 1781 17 0 0
ODI 0 35 5 617 6822 766 0 0
CDI 0 5 3 15 2542 11589 4639 39
VCDI 0 35 6 63 143 2668 8602 758
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118968 18141 198 1289 110 0 0 0
OW 0 1432 96 965 422 1 0 0
VODI 0 894 152 2596 2182 210 0 0
ODI 0 125 27 1459 5271 1719 254 0
CDI 0 18 5 61 3207 11183 10606 797
VCDI 0 33 6 66 246 1928 2381 0

Date: 2021-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119749 18594 168 708 68 0 0 0
OW 0 1423 178 1215 166 7 0 0
VODI 0 305 119 4457 1789 23 0 0
ODI 0 46 9 683 5306 1035 0 0
CDI 0 11 2 5 2497 10710 6244 834
VCDI 0 16 4 78 169 2581 7594 255
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119749 17763 204 1129 148 3 0 0
OW 0 1444 79 1054 418 8 0 0
VODI 0 1044 155 3171 1864 256 0 0
ODI 0 100 31 1610 4362 1965 494 12
CDI 0 32 7 105 2987 10907 12596 991
VCDI 0 12 4 77 216 1217 748 86


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