Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-08-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-08-09

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2674 42 127 4 0 0 0
OW 0 394 81 455 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 58 1351 405 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 5 238 5678 362 0 0
CDI 0 12 2 20 1257 13262 1719 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1500 6201 897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2687 61 290 24 0 0 0
OW 0 342 61 570 144 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 46 918 1138 14 0 0
ODI 0 56 17 319 3289 970 2 0
CDI 0 16 3 94 2761 11966 2323 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 2174 5595 897

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 536 17 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 3 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 2 69 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 0 9 176 6 0 0
CDI 0 19 5 9 332 635 4 0
VCDI 0 9 7 80 240 326 524 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 539 17 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 3 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 34 40 1 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 26 117 19 0 0
CDI 0 16 0 20 257 452 3 0
VCDI 0 36 12 88 361 495 525 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1469 37 98 0 0 0 0
OW 0 72 5 171 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 6 228 161 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 2601 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 564 3042 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1047 344 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1470 41 251 37 0 0 0
OW 0 71 3 163 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 93 761 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 1490 252 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 958 2239 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1673 344 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1873 1719 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 98 16 46 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 15 244 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 1484 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1873 1596 5 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 148 12 50 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 17 237 353 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 1177 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 490 4017 48 141 0 0 0 0
OW 0 209 64 472 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 1171 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 444 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 43 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 490 3641 51 211 3 0 0 0
OW 0 503 41 579 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 22 945 165 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 355 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3288 1995 5 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 0 7 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3288 1983 5 14 2 0 0 0
OW 0 19 0 1 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3533 1669 5 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 9 102 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 114 120 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 321 19 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 293 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3533 1697 11 150 63 0 0 0
OW 0 22 3 70 133 3 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 49 151 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 112 93 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 189 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10522 809 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10522 801 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9876 1522 12 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 9 87 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 107 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9876 1365 5 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 144 6 51 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 13 129 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12411 574 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12411 574 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4574 1146 12 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 1 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 17 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4574 1143 12 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 0 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 10 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7323 928 18 135 2 0 0 0
OW 0 17 5 98 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 55 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7323 944 21 185 2 0 0 0
OW 0 2 2 99 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20119 87 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20119 87 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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