Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-08-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9875 5624 56 358 40 0 0 0
OW 1 377 44 350 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 176 37 829 638 1 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 187 3709 1770 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 1255 7395 1342 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 371 4158 5627 1463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10329 5406 51 333 37 0 0 0
OW 0 434 54 465 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 234 37 919 556 1 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 181 4902 906 0 0
CDI 0 17 5 58 1198 7612 1752 0
VCDI 0 1 0 9 381 3013 5941 896
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10281 6047 95 337 74 0 0 0
OW 0 289 57 451 116 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 25 733 683 29 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 47 2868 2857 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 48 878 7879 749 3
VCDI 0 0 1 12 401 3634 6894 306
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11040 5795 78 296 5 0 0 0
OW 0 430 47 569 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 27 714 637 17 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 112 4532 1214 0 0
CDI 0 27 2 3 857 7509 620 122
VCDI 0 13 6 57 346 3611 5900 1196
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11040 5849 93 399 9 0 0 0
OW 0 365 40 533 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 19 639 777 23 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 115 4250 1182 0 0
CDI 0 24 1 8 973 7237 589 194
VCDI 0 22 7 57 369 3909 5931 1124

Date: 2021-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11145 5644 90 391 4 0 0 0
OW 0 424 41 534 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 25 541 990 21 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 124 4433 1281 0 0
CDI 0 41 5 5 1332 6944 541 0
VCDI 0 5 3 24 410 4704 5280 683
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11145 5729 98 523 18 0 0 0
OW 0 355 32 427 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 29 521 1219 31 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 114 4105 1116 0 0
CDI 0 40 5 10 1392 6817 664 0
VCDI 0 11 3 24 429 4986 5157 683

Date: 2021-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11360 5741 100 299 2 0 0 0
OW 0 261 37 413 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 26 878 287 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 0 66 6345 342 0 0
CDI 0 19 5 9 1059 8317 530 0
VCDI 0 9 7 80 240 2204 6275 897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11360 5629 109 527 42 0 0 0
OW 0 280 24 441 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 30 600 1488 7 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 69 4287 601 0 0
CDI 0 16 0 20 1673 7005 876 0
VCDI 0 36 12 88 361 3250 5929 897

Date: 2021-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10986 6106 118 409 16 0 0 0
OW 0 169 37 477 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 13 765 785 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 0 122 5830 438 0 0
CDI 0 16 2 9 1291 7638 2030 0
VCDI 0 21 6 95 238 1721 5919 505
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10986 5966 122 588 105 0 0 0
OW 0 224 23 422 179 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 23 632 1826 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 112 3998 591 3 0
CDI 0 26 2 27 1803 6730 2695 126
VCDI 0 36 6 96 309 2476 5251 379

Date: 2021-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11520 5649 96 348 99 0 0 0
OW 0 238 44 491 131 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 14 709 1267 11 0 0
ODI 0 17 0 129 5358 629 0 0
CDI 0 16 1 12 914 8469 1854 0
VCDI 0 41 8 96 184 3875 3381 225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11520 5537 99 548 229 0 0 0
OW 0 269 26 377 387 0 0 0
VODI 0 101 26 619 1946 14 0 0
ODI 0 19 3 120 3793 566 15 0
CDI 0 18 0 20 1367 8204 3366 225
VCDI 0 57 9 101 231 4200 1854 0


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