Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-08-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112222 17624 159 751 43 0 0 0
OW 10 1217 192 1221 172 7 0 0
VODI 0 316 105 2573 1968 86 7 0
ODI 0 16 7 522 6964 3532 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 2347 16155 4705 1
VCDI 0 0 0 44 371 4643 7484 1463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112673 17680 144 741 39 0 0 0
OW 2 1340 183 1478 200 1 0 0
VODI 0 397 110 2933 2147 30 0 0
ODI 0 8 6 488 8117 2542 2 0
CDI 0 17 5 113 1909 15721 5428 117
VCDI 0 1 0 9 381 3374 7812 900
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112494 19657 215 758 74 0 0 0
OW 1 895 213 1389 180 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 51 2850 2143 38 1 0
ODI 0 4 5 213 6203 3477 12 0
CDI 0 16 5 84 1543 17072 2693 3
VCDI 0 0 1 12 401 4053 9868 333
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114466 18553 191 750 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1182 191 1642 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 67 3133 1929 19 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 318 7261 2079 0 0
CDI 0 28 2 22 1698 16468 2930 122
VCDI 0 13 6 57 346 4580 7539 1196
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114466 18666 218 1007 30 0 0 0
OW 0 1029 170 1590 166 0 0 0
VODI 0 155 61 2869 1996 26 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 376 7062 1967 2 0
CDI 0 24 1 23 1742 16155 2872 194
VCDI 0 22 7 57 369 4998 7595 1124

Date: 2021-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115623 17922 198 884 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1348 176 1832 228 0 0 0
VODI 0 316 98 2601 2301 52 0 0
ODI 0 16 3 498 6690 2307 30 0
CDI 0 45 9 77 2850 15124 2435 0
VCDI 0 5 3 24 453 6781 5420 683
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115623 17999 224 1211 94 0 0 0
OW 0 1235 137 1525 320 1 0 0
VODI 0 349 110 2517 2305 98 0 0
ODI 0 16 6 560 6484 1978 20 0
CDI 0 42 7 79 2869 15109 2562 0
VCDI 0 11 3 24 466 7078 5303 683

Date: 2021-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115869 19145 199 649 6 0 0 0
OW 0 943 193 1473 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 145 91 3356 867 0 0 0
ODI 0 48 5 303 10708 540 2 0
CDI 0 31 7 29 2173 17287 1763 0
VCDI 0 9 7 80 240 2873 7069 897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115869 18527 229 1190 131 0 0 0
OW 0 1283 131 1620 380 3 0 0
VODI 0 381 110 2419 2615 42 0 0
ODI 0 62 17 459 6540 1453 4 0
CDI 0 32 3 114 4005 14860 2366 0
VCDI 0 36 12 88 364 4342 6464 897

Date: 2021-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116529 18822 256 888 64 0 0 0
OW 0 780 161 1740 227 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 55 2542 1951 20 0 0
ODI 0 44 5 319 8568 2040 18 0
CDI 0 21 5 48 1668 16121 4690 0
VCDI 0 21 6 95 238 2009 6480 505
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116529 18154 234 1251 375 3 0 0
OW 0 1182 141 1643 564 18 0 0
VODI 0 327 84 2067 3168 106 0 0
ODI 0 69 17 432 5717 1828 51 0
CDI 0 32 6 143 2583 15114 5279 126
VCDI 0 36 6 96 309 3121 5858 379

Date: 2021-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118778 17234 198 628 114 0 0 0
OW 65 992 176 1704 259 0 0 0
VODI 0 232 71 2275 2400 24 0 0
ODI 0 61 9 467 7645 2546 0 0
CDI 0 24 2 44 1353 16393 4911 0
VCDI 0 41 8 96 184 4157 3732 225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118645 16510 213 1244 501 5 0 0
OW 171 1401 125 1314 658 35 0 0
VODI 27 486 95 1948 3151 136 0 0
ODI 0 109 21 480 5368 1905 37 0
CDI 0 21 1 127 2046 16429 6260 225
VCDI 0 57 9 101 231 4610 2346 0


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