Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-07-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-08-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1689 19 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 249 62 244 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 16 1102 489 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 142 4281 393 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 597 12476 3112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1420 8392 2145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1344 4 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 333 28 95 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 287 56 815 657 59 0 0
ODI 0 8 11 531 3463 1838 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 1245 10975 5946 285
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1417 5492 1860

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 438 10 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 3 38 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 39 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 5 16 89 16 0 0
CDI 0 9 3 52 357 766 46 0
VCDI 0 0 1 7 396 233 558 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 363 6 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 74 6 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 1 38 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 24 67 28 0 0
CDI 0 13 8 45 336 715 116 0
VCDI 0 1 1 27 445 272 488 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1449 22 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 134 17 191 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 11 485 75 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 1943 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 509 2856 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1055 861 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1356 22 57 0 0 0 0
OW 0 171 15 172 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 9 357 89 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 4 146 1496 166 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 942 2699 585 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1154 461 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1364 1910 5 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 143 22 84 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 15 263 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 1432 153 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 164 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1364 1721 5 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 213 15 75 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 134 19 221 126 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 48 1315 317 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 328 3200 42 223 6 0 0 0
OW 0 274 74 435 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 5 1383 331 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 745 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 105 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 328 3170 65 504 17 0 0 0
OW 0 274 41 596 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 15 961 646 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 300 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3100 2132 6 14 0 0 0 0
OW 1 19 4 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 12 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3100 2092 5 11 0 0 0 0
OW 1 44 2 22 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 4 26 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3603 1407 12 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 14 116 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 81 157 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 319 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 427 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3603 1393 12 85 16 0 0 0
OW 0 38 12 81 140 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 68 282 98 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 63 279 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 143 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9915 1349 9 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9915 1333 9 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 1 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 13 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8837 2246 16 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 98 21 64 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 179 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 94 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8837 2217 21 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 112 16 96 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 4 131 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 48 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12032 952 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12032 952 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4800 897 3 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4800 897 3 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6536 1452 21 169 9 0 0 0
OW 0 18 10 102 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 127 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6536 1463 27 268 51 0 0 0
OW 0 7 4 93 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19944 245 6 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19944 245 6 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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