Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-07-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9207 5186 86 368 161 4 0 0
OW 0 242 56 402 220 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 11 416 1331 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 3836 1547 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1027 7271 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 279 8306 5522 49
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9672 5028 88 414 83 0 0 0
OW 0 277 54 431 204 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 16 511 1563 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 3961 1470 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1138 6581 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 390 5873 6826 1037
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10382 4717 61 364 54 0 0 0
OW 4 200 57 407 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 21 804 546 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 168 4586 652 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1388 7805 400 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 433 5621 7010 7
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10495 4871 70 316 79 0 0 0
OW 1 345 37 324 100 0 0 0
VODI 0 144 40 711 727 2 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 92 3534 1944 1 0
CDI 0 2 0 11 819 7467 1313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 273 5036 5679 1370
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10494 4918 73 369 86 0 0 0
OW 2 332 41 334 163 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 31 614 774 2 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 121 3417 1932 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 10 821 7295 1299 0
VCDI 0 1 0 65 271 5220 5693 1370

Date: 2021-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9818 5821 50 327 35 0 0 0
OW 0 407 51 396 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 205 37 904 630 2 0 0
ODI 0 7 4 192 4521 1177 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 1268 7764 1239 2
VCDI 0 1 1 42 253 3948 6544 94
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9818 5906 58 405 51 0 0 0
OW 0 360 42 408 157 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 37 782 736 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 5 217 4308 1018 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 1288 7843 1247 5
VCDI 0 1 1 45 261 4030 6536 91

Date: 2021-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10325 5890 67 296 15 0 0 0
OW 0 324 55 487 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 32 1198 289 6 0 0
ODI 0 5 5 89 5067 416 0 0
CDI 0 9 3 52 1046 7807 985 0
VCDI 0 0 1 7 396 2362 6778 1762
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10325 5547 70 486 57 0 0 0
OW 0 485 44 455 114 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 32 870 611 5 0 0
ODI 0 9 8 246 4115 1263 15 0
CDI 0 13 8 45 1509 6951 2026 113
VCDI 0 1 1 27 445 2372 5722 1649

Date: 2021-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10567 6033 90 348 11 0 0 0
OW 0 366 62 543 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 24 773 564 57 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 77 3735 2021 0 0
CDI 0 24 2 4 538 7546 890 341
VCDI 0 10 5 39 376 2412 6783 1532
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10567 5394 86 508 48 0 0 0
OW 0 639 40 378 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 372 44 595 942 131 0 0
ODI 0 27 7 237 3207 2106 3 1
CDI 0 13 0 27 597 7647 2170 949
VCDI 0 27 7 39 399 2152 5500 923

Date: 2021-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11352 5500 78 321 6 0 0 0
OW 0 425 42 573 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 22 594 854 16 0 0
ODI 0 7 4 127 4755 1013 0 0
CDI 0 35 1 9 1612 6640 649 0
VCDI 0 9 7 39 230 4610 6109 105
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11352 5076 82 573 41 0 0 0
OW 0 611 35 428 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 302 18 438 1438 123 0 0
ODI 0 28 11 133 3731 1244 27 0
CDI 0 8 0 23 1930 7289 2208 5
VCDI 0 39 8 68 261 3623 4523 100


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