Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-07-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 105337 21336 201 856 165 4 0 0
OW 0 1168 197 1447 268 0 0 0
VODI 0 184 68 1979 2478 20 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 351 7683 3068 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 2895 19027 1028 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 280 11288 5591 49
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 108230 19222 191 881 83 0 0 0
OW 2 1316 170 1442 297 1 0 0
VODI 0 279 94 1795 3047 33 0 0
ODI 0 26 10 454 7538 3525 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 2841 16316 2469 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 407 7600 7639 1037
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 111198 17777 159 748 54 0 0 0
OW 5 830 223 1273 100 3 0 0
VODI 0 90 58 2680 1327 20 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 389 9110 1295 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 2502 17503 3256 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 435 6653 9256 20
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 113113 16490 174 691 85 0 0 0
OW 13 1084 198 1217 135 6 0 0
VODI 0 224 86 2755 1712 34 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 275 7078 3575 1 0
CDI 0 2 1 38 1443 16544 5145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 273 5337 7858 1397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 113123 16643 197 886 93 0 0 0
OW 3 919 177 1120 225 5 0 0
VODI 0 231 81 2561 1711 33 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 363 6835 3487 1 0
CDI 0 1 1 40 1591 16442 5123 0
VCDI 0 1 0 65 271 5529 7880 1397

Date: 2021-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112527 17591 157 692 41 0 0 0
OW 4 1319 203 1266 188 6 0 0
VODI 0 336 93 2668 2227 43 0 0
ODI 0 12 8 439 8002 2821 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 2049 15315 5502 234
VCDI 0 1 1 42 253 4551 8170 196
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112530 17798 184 969 90 0 0 0
OW 1 1093 160 1168 310 3 0 0
VODI 0 356 108 2412 2107 93 0 0
ODI 0 11 9 500 7702 2460 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 99 2290 15534 5521 304
VCDI 0 1 1 45 261 4646 8143 126

Date: 2021-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112319 19366 174 656 15 0 0 0
OW 1 968 229 1345 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 53 3708 1273 11 0 0
ODI 0 12 7 256 8939 763 0 0
CDI 0 9 3 78 1504 16794 3343 0
VCDI 0 0 1 7 396 2730 9811 2145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 112319 18546 188 1140 84 0 0 0
OW 1 1280 140 1296 355 5 0 0
VODI 0 582 111 2685 1967 157 0 0
ODI 0 17 19 783 6759 2743 66 0
CDI 0 13 8 119 2565 14539 6647 285
VCDI 0 1 1 27 445 2854 6441 1860

Date: 2021-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 113486 19086 214 815 11 0 0 0
OW 1 1046 201 1542 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 50 3129 1883 63 0 0
ODI 0 12 5 250 6824 2679 0 0
CDI 0 24 3 44 1239 17295 2439 370
VCDI 0 10 5 39 376 3047 9094 1539
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 113486 17880 218 1423 104 0 0 0
OW 1 1440 111 1353 381 0 0 0
VODI 0 849 107 2004 2427 295 0 0
ODI 0 75 33 889 5435 3690 25 1
CDI 0 16 2 111 1704 16611 5908 985
VCDI 0 27 7 39 400 2488 5600 923

Date: 2021-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 114982 18299 194 800 21 0 0 0
OW 0 1325 185 1709 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 232 87 2976 2028 31 0 0
ODI 0 9 8 424 7301 1910 37 0
CDI 0 39 1 71 2498 14906 3226 0
VCDI 0 9 7 39 230 6395 6837 105
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 114981 17118 202 1498 140 0 0 0
OW 1 1558 115 1340 305 0 0 0
VODI 0 994 99 2031 2680 308 0 0
ODI 0 192 54 928 5670 2741 285 0
CDI 0 12 4 154 3149 16378 5189 5
VCDI 0 39 8 68 261 3815 4626 100


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