Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-07-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103710 19908 237 748 133 2 0 0
OW 5 830 208 1997 369 13 0 0
VODI 0 109 61 2378 2025 59 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 243 5727 3113 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 2931 17407 2696 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 14658 7262 13
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104113 20227 203 821 109 0 0 0
OW 1 1039 222 2255 369 11 0 0
VODI 0 118 51 1946 2517 69 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 227 7106 2081 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 5021 15738 1930 0
VCDI 0 2 0 8 212 14192 6304 91
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104979 20692 230 734 91 0 0 0
OW 0 669 229 1955 225 4 0 0
VODI 0 43 26 2178 1858 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 194 8388 1939 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 3464 17092 2283 0
VCDI 0 2 0 9 393 9762 9375 190
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105304 21119 216 789 93 0 0 0
OW 0 1065 208 1606 197 0 0 0
VODI 0 113 58 2075 2270 13 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 300 7492 3154 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 45 2588 19615 1012 0
VCDI 0 2 0 19 563 14222 2901 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105304 21320 249 937 144 0 0 0
OW 0 817 164 1501 212 0 0 0
VODI 0 158 66 2012 2282 16 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 309 7143 3167 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 2856 19672 1050 0
VCDI 0 3 0 19 566 14149 2862 0

Date: 2021-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106990 20082 209 842 157 0 0 0
OW 0 1253 172 1431 291 1 0 0
VODI 0 225 80 1788 2794 76 0 0
ODI 0 19 7 397 7077 3774 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 2758 17738 1751 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 385 9363 7055 229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106990 20265 222 1033 205 0 0 0
OW 0 1030 157 1313 304 2 0 0
VODI 0 259 78 1701 2757 77 0 0
ODI 0 25 11 394 6814 3943 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 3013 17502 1721 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 369 9428 7085 229

Date: 2021-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110248 18270 164 686 57 0 0 0
OW 9 922 243 1162 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 42 2614 1102 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 272 9560 1106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 1838 19655 1930 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 427 6418 9417 677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110249 17726 213 1207 144 0 0 0
OW 8 1119 129 1263 364 4 0 0
VODI 0 355 92 1727 3244 108 0 0
ODI 0 46 16 505 6132 4705 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 2714 14953 3315 2
VCDI 0 0 0 69 468 7421 7942 675

Date: 2021-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111773 17467 167 739 61 0 0 0
OW 3 940 227 1243 142 4 0 0
VODI 0 137 61 2794 1588 25 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 334 7462 2974 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 2310 17101 3666 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 408 5409 9229 695
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111772 16859 212 1306 196 0 0 0
OW 4 1164 126 1338 583 7 0 0
VODI 0 464 98 1947 3364 315 0 0
ODI 0 58 19 468 4869 5677 417 0
CDI 0 0 1 63 2507 13300 4645 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 452 6214 7834 695

Date: 2021-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112222 17624 159 751 43 0 0 0
OW 10 1217 192 1221 172 7 0 0
VODI 0 316 105 2573 1968 86 7 0
ODI 0 16 7 522 6964 3532 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 2347 16155 4705 1
VCDI 0 0 0 44 371 4643 7484 1463
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112229 16912 216 1480 286 46 0 0
OW 3 1330 112 1449 712 109 7 0
VODI 0 779 91 1338 3273 977 40 0
ODI 0 152 43 624 4719 5360 399 0
CDI 0 0 1 232 2429 12904 5365 1
VCDI 0 0 0 55 446 5027 6439 1463


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