Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-07-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2728 8551 131 616 92 1 0 0
OW 1 556 58 625 170 19 0 0
VODI 0 116 25 608 596 109 0 0
ODI 0 85 7 187 1357 466 0 0
CDI 0 56 4 83 1603 8312 569 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 164 15653 2317 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4086 7831 105 436 88 1 0 0
OW 11 716 50 456 173 11 0 0
VODI 0 128 27 607 651 110 0 0
ODI 0 80 6 185 1524 598 0 0
CDI 0 29 4 59 2108 8532 11 0
VCDI 0 7 0 9 532 15800 895 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6721 6452 124 378 73 0 0 0
OW 0 148 43 407 96 4 0 0
VODI 0 90 13 753 484 14 0 0
ODI 0 35 3 86 2178 745 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1865 9338 26 0
VCDI 0 4 0 3 357 11413 3704 302
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7282 6047 111 418 95 0 0 0
OW 0 198 57 468 167 2 0 0
VODI 0 57 15 530 705 44 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 67 1688 1566 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1103 9401 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 12994 2618 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7282 6044 111 455 128 1 0 0
OW 0 204 56 429 150 6 0 0
VODI 0 53 16 547 702 51 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 52 1593 1429 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1183 9348 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 135 13172 2635 0

Date: 2021-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7783 5913 98 332 122 4 0 0
OW 0 203 56 485 292 8 0 0
VODI 0 31 10 374 939 50 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 53 2456 1148 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 1806 7429 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 276 11140 4820 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7783 5921 98 368 190 6 0 0
OW 0 195 54 405 272 13 0 0
VODI 0 31 12 431 935 51 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 39 2355 1116 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1862 7307 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 277 11286 4820 0

Date: 2021-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8081 5873 91 342 66 0 0 0
OW 0 142 65 556 114 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 6 622 487 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 70 4851 322 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 2216 7018 0 0
VCDI 0 2 0 6 395 8882 5620 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8081 5775 96 490 175 0 0 0
OW 0 236 54 485 274 12 0 0
VODI 0 28 12 529 1241 20 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 83 2813 527 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 3128 5741 0 0
VCDI 0 3 0 9 498 9925 5620 1

Date: 2021-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9259 4969 93 371 93 0 0 0
OW 0 215 49 486 168 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 12 411 1120 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 56 4182 1115 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 9 1578 7042 21 0
VCDI 0 8 0 24 418 9411 4617 99
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9259 4888 85 487 198 0 0 0
OW 0 251 47 355 340 0 0 0
VODI 0 65 17 393 1511 29 0 0
ODI 0 13 5 79 2454 1153 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 2574 6039 0 0
VCDI 0 9 0 24 482 10353 4638 99

Date: 2021-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9207 5186 86 368 161 4 0 0
OW 0 242 56 402 220 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 11 416 1331 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 3836 1547 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1027 7271 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 279 8306 5522 49
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9207 5101 91 498 304 2 0 0
OW 0 257 45 358 416 4 0 0
VODI 0 115 13 298 1547 80 0 0
ODI 0 7 4 105 2030 1604 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 2226 6033 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 331 9418 5554 49


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