Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-07-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94858 23514 341 1436 122 5 0 0
OW 2 1044 182 2059 555 23 0 0
VODI 0 179 42 2000 2849 263 0 0
ODI 0 86 11 348 4306 2255 27 0
CDI 0 57 4 146 3159 17359 759 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 289 22108 6594 65
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97585 22283 288 1094 125 4 0 0
OW 11 1248 161 2280 525 20 0 0
VODI 0 246 59 1823 2939 326 3 0
ODI 0 93 8 428 4087 2821 25 0
CDI 0 29 4 137 4083 15977 511 0
VCDI 0 7 0 9 750 22219 4840 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101227 20839 343 1064 100 1 0 0
OW 0 415 152 1777 251 9 0 0
VODI 0 102 25 2377 1930 30 0 0
ODI 0 36 3 252 6422 1541 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 4466 19202 420 0
VCDI 0 4 0 3 1327 16802 5571 302
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102859 20252 271 857 100 1 0 0
OW 0 692 196 1918 303 7 0 0
VODI 0 116 48 2522 1885 60 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 264 5818 2669 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 3439 18425 1789 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 17194 5161 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102859 20253 272 1133 156 2 0 0
OW 0 679 185 1723 323 10 0 0
VODI 0 128 58 2432 1796 73 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 269 5401 2636 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 3867 18324 1768 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 135 17311 5182 0

Date: 2021-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103611 20350 226 752 127 4 0 0
OW 1 961 216 2147 403 18 0 0
VODI 0 123 61 1983 2349 100 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 215 6369 2727 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 3514 16893 2187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 276 14544 6795 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103611 20392 260 1103 210 7 0 0
OW 1 892 177 1852 450 23 0 0
VODI 0 150 66 1902 2143 114 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 238 6217 2408 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 3741 17064 2093 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 277 14670 6844 0

Date: 2021-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104848 20274 211 653 68 0 0 0
OW 0 813 252 1830 141 4 0 0
VODI 0 48 23 2679 1250 14 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 205 9736 639 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 22 4582 16983 1535 0
VCDI 0 2 0 6 401 11287 8536 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104848 19970 260 1325 198 0 0 0
OW 0 1003 158 1726 468 23 0 0
VODI 0 159 67 1944 2462 85 1 0
ODI 0 5 3 332 6668 1857 152 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 5875 14413 2518 0
VCDI 0 3 0 9 507 12549 7400 1

Date: 2021-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104676 21386 219 790 97 0 0 0
OW 0 876 221 1778 192 2 0 0
VODI 0 87 44 2047 2199 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 261 8343 2117 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 35 3041 18347 1538 0
VCDI 0 8 0 24 418 12433 5755 99
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104676 21023 247 1300 226 0 0 0
OW 0 1046 148 1603 516 1 0 0
VODI 0 257 78 1533 2917 80 0 0
ODI 0 24 12 367 5742 3229 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 4407 15722 1781 0
VCDI 0 9 0 24 482 13879 5458 99

Date: 2021-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105337 21336 201 856 165 4 0 0
OW 0 1168 197 1447 268 0 0 0
VODI 0 184 68 1979 2478 20 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 351 7683 3068 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 2895 19027 1028 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 280 11288 5591 49
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105337 21103 234 1326 337 2 0 0
OW 0 1174 154 1480 619 5 0 0
VODI 0 371 69 1341 3131 188 0 0
ODI 0 47 13 413 5176 4058 4 0
CDI 0 2 1 97 4174 15771 970 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 332 13383 5645 49


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