Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-07-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1715 6084 92 534 82 26 0 0
OW 3 613 87 747 135 22 1 0
VODI 0 211 38 1337 732 148 6 0
ODI 0 21 6 431 1476 352 41 0
CDI 0 22 6 201 595 5544 2162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 481 9734 8441 3740
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1653 6717 104 687 104 33 0 0
OW 2 590 73 974 250 33 0 0
VODI 0 159 24 787 1158 148 21 0
ODI 0 26 6 273 1072 449 112 0
CDI 0 51 7 185 638 5184 2589 0
VCDI 0 14 0 34 642 6670 9538 4859
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2095 8069 113 513 80 4 0 0
OW 1 449 54 691 103 9 0 0
VODI 0 124 25 1248 630 71 0 0
ODI 0 46 8 210 1393 259 0 0
CDI 0 18 8 112 962 9174 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 186 8125 10028 994
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2690 8286 126 612 102 0 0 0
OW 1 557 58 707 130 21 0 0
VODI 0 170 23 697 602 84 0 0
ODI 0 64 6 170 1375 257 0 0
CDI 0 79 7 106 1468 8445 428 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 190 14881 3511 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2690 8427 124 635 127 10 0 0
OW 1 499 61 679 102 34 0 0
VODI 0 83 21 666 560 75 0 0
ODI 0 67 7 212 1457 347 0 0
CDI 0 80 7 100 1428 8351 390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 193 14871 3549 5

Date: 2021-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2956 8544 121 659 95 1 0 0
OW 1 560 53 562 203 15 0 0
VODI 0 126 19 568 652 107 0 0
ODI 0 100 9 177 1298 646 0 0
CDI 0 54 5 66 1135 9244 263 0
VCDI 0 29 0 11 262 15130 2195 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2956 8732 125 642 129 9 0 0
OW 1 371 47 530 174 37 0 0
VODI 0 114 20 585 635 110 0 0
ODI 0 118 11 223 1323 681 0 0
CDI 0 49 4 52 1122 9244 259 0
VCDI 0 29 0 11 262 15062 2199 0

Date: 2021-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7643 5390 95 319 65 1 0 0
OW 5 192 49 345 93 2 0 0
VODI 0 72 9 752 444 35 0 0
ODI 0 35 3 111 2427 280 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1442 10232 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 987 12879 1940 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7289 5132 94 374 136 22 0 0
OW 308 296 25 289 160 52 0 0
VODI 51 151 32 583 635 123 0 0
ODI 0 110 5 239 1600 501 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1886 8662 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1041 14069 1941 0

Date: 2021-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7105 6081 127 424 74 0 0 0
OW 0 152 44 498 97 6 0 0
VODI 0 55 18 651 609 39 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 56 1724 1443 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 1625 9081 303 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 203 14883 533 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7105 5649 103 403 170 26 0 0
OW 0 421 45 385 155 31 0 0
VODI 0 165 34 609 703 132 0 0
ODI 0 72 7 215 1055 1072 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 2031 8404 294 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 218 15787 542 0

Date: 2021-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7482 6054 99 347 127 2 0 0
OW 0 207 49 455 253 5 0 0
VODI 0 33 17 450 840 33 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 32 1822 1647 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 756 8961 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 10763 5191 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7482 5585 81 344 286 30 0 0
OW 0 493 45 335 282 19 0 0
VODI 0 183 29 408 848 136 0 0
ODI 0 34 10 182 1289 987 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 24 1063 8484 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 11755 5231 0


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