Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-07-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89101 21344 330 2359 204 26 0 0
OW 36 1218 233 2327 548 23 1 0
VODI 0 285 63 2899 2234 181 6 0
ODI 0 26 11 966 4518 1388 41 0
CDI 0 35 8 315 2155 14018 3429 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 639 15172 15809 5099
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90343 22005 356 2322 151 33 0 0
OW 15 1298 219 2678 612 37 0 0
VODI 0 239 49 2303 2811 231 21 0
ODI 0 31 12 774 4075 1350 112 0
CDI 0 61 14 344 3079 13437 3269 0
VCDI 0 14 0 34 712 11190 15873 6944
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91908 24041 383 1695 105 7 0 0
OW 2 768 167 2172 293 14 0 0
VODI 0 143 45 3110 2084 110 0 0
ODI 0 48 9 474 5688 949 3 0
CDI 0 19 10 182 3167 17881 624 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 334 13333 16286 994
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94892 22807 357 1560 129 3 0 0
OW 1 861 168 2269 396 25 0 0
VODI 0 209 36 2231 2694 185 0 0
ODI 0 66 10 405 4783 1547 15 0
CDI 0 79 7 201 3527 17243 759 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 354 21086 7981 153
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94891 23033 377 1851 213 13 0 0
OW 2 716 145 1987 394 40 0 0
VODI 0 124 38 2173 2478 205 0 0
ODI 0 69 11 451 4792 1687 49 0
CDI 0 80 7 202 3627 16966 755 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 379 21178 7951 153

Date: 2021-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95010 23882 327 1392 135 4 0 0
OW 1 1169 167 2260 517 28 0 0
VODI 0 215 45 2061 2691 292 1 0
ODI 0 107 12 404 4158 2483 64 0
CDI 0 55 5 146 2929 17118 916 0
VCDI 0 29 0 11 467 21816 6131 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95010 24202 361 1723 256 12 0 0
OW 1 825 131 1882 472 58 0 0
VODI 0 224 46 2078 2411 288 1 0
ODI 0 127 14 444 4209 2482 115 0
CDI 0 50 4 136 3081 16803 898 0
VCDI 0 29 0 11 468 22098 6098 0

Date: 2021-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101375 20267 286 866 84 4 0 0
OW 6 500 188 1602 201 5 0 0
VODI 0 85 27 2701 1440 47 0 0
ODI 0 36 3 291 6990 843 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 3787 20376 362 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2143 18466 4023 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101021 19776 323 1503 282 25 0 0
OW 309 702 108 1595 695 88 0 0
VODI 51 287 64 1759 2431 377 14 0
ODI 0 123 9 512 4325 2438 120 0
CDI 0 0 0 131 4453 15595 468 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2459 21218 3785 0

Date: 2021-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102214 20204 346 1052 97 1 0 0
OW 0 479 143 1915 287 12 0 0
VODI 0 76 33 2406 2031 66 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 237 5617 2694 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 3749 18685 1672 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1039 19077 2838 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102214 19538 329 1651 382 29 0 0
OW 0 822 131 1695 870 81 0 0
VODI 0 335 52 1621 2566 531 5 0
ODI 0 83 10 586 3426 3013 266 0
CDI 0 0 0 115 4359 15351 1345 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1217 21530 2895 0

Date: 2021-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103710 19908 237 748 133 2 0 0
OW 5 830 208 1997 369 13 0 0
VODI 0 109 61 2378 2025 59 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 243 5727 3113 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 2931 17407 2696 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 14658 7262 13
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103712 19315 283 1541 464 32 0 0
OW 3 1017 128 1789 632 92 0 0
VODI 0 439 75 1397 2766 613 42 0
ODI 0 78 20 576 3625 2653 82 0
CDI 0 2 0 123 3619 15010 2127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 219 16852 7709 13


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