Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-07-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 601 5066 147 709 114 5 0 0
OW 7 312 39 672 242 6 0 0
VODI 0 141 24 533 1018 33 3 0
ODI 0 88 16 276 2312 52 5 0
CDI 0 96 9 195 2370 2982 1402 0
VCDI 0 5 5 98 1756 12586 7600 4341
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 722 5486 136 700 146 33 0 0
OW 5 349 37 577 288 18 0 0
VODI 0 183 25 521 1138 114 0 0
ODI 0 104 14 295 2125 188 13 0
CDI 0 98 11 265 1897 3374 1454 0
VCDI 0 24 9 120 1716 9432 8897 5352
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 721 6428 127 485 102 23 0 0
OW 0 278 61 622 85 12 0 0
VODI 0 99 20 1161 846 32 5 0
ODI 0 35 9 287 2731 250 28 0
CDI 0 52 8 271 1583 4153 702 0
VCDI 0 43 5 90 1327 9207 9206 4772
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1354 6179 122 413 165 0 0 0
OW 0 459 63 605 283 1 0 0
VODI 0 143 29 733 1520 68 3 0
ODI 0 19 8 177 2039 382 21 0
CDI 0 14 6 224 933 6393 781 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 714 8972 8880 4163
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1354 6287 132 544 248 1 0 0
OW 0 327 53 481 378 7 0 0
VODI 0 165 28 688 1279 75 3 0
ODI 0 23 8 215 2001 345 39 0
CDI 0 12 7 224 1029 6341 826 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 719 9047 8817 4163

Date: 2021-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1687 6361 102 602 101 29 0 0
OW 3 579 71 877 225 24 1 0
VODI 0 208 31 1050 955 170 6 0
ODI 0 27 6 303 1219 483 49 0
CDI 0 56 8 204 607 4659 3055 0
VCDI 0 4 1 20 678 7923 10933 2549
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1687 6439 112 868 128 32 0 0
OW 3 513 59 840 177 34 1 0
VODI 0 203 33 761 930 151 11 0
ODI 0 19 7 382 1188 427 62 0
CDI 0 61 8 180 675 4726 3016 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 687 7918 10954 2549

Date: 2021-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1731 7617 110 588 73 24 0 0
OW 2 461 82 662 123 13 0 0
VODI 0 63 20 1058 818 54 0 0
ODI 0 42 5 208 1856 311 0 0
CDI 0 22 8 111 636 8079 1197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 181 7235 9616 2860
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1731 7196 125 901 290 34 0 0
OW 2 570 33 410 535 53 0 0
VODI 0 304 41 595 787 218 0 0
ODI 0 51 12 474 839 433 9 0
CDI 0 83 13 218 992 6423 1193 0
VCDI 0 1 1 29 244 8555 9611 2860

Date: 2021-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2699 7845 127 623 82 2 0 0
OW 21 442 53 805 143 15 0 0
VODI 1 88 18 826 806 86 0 0
ODI 0 52 4 183 1331 220 0 0
CDI 0 54 6 107 1168 8906 106 0
VCDI 0 6 0 9 166 12539 6209 118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2716 7585 116 816 156 14 0 0
OW 5 474 46 589 329 91 0 0
VODI 0 234 25 647 641 211 0 0
ODI 0 72 11 249 896 206 0 0
CDI 0 114 9 220 1466 7845 104 0
VCDI 0 8 1 32 208 13401 6211 118

Date: 2021-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2728 8551 131 616 92 1 0 0
OW 1 556 58 625 170 19 0 0
VODI 0 116 25 608 596 109 0 0
ODI 0 85 7 187 1357 466 0 0
CDI 0 56 4 83 1603 8312 569 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 164 15653 2317 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2728 8301 119 673 240 38 0 0
OW 1 508 59 499 257 158 0 0
VODI 0 325 25 465 419 229 0 0
ODI 0 96 12 284 896 272 0 0
CDI 0 134 10 198 1933 7429 569 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 237 16434 2317 0


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