Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-07-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84959 20790 438 2171 449 5 0 0
OW 16 639 144 2083 1304 21 0 0
VODI 0 223 53 1504 3256 201 4 0
ODI 0 102 27 552 4990 900 9 0
CDI 0 96 9 449 4347 10936 2556 0
VCDI 0 5 5 99 2091 16041 16993 8581
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85743 21335 410 2258 766 33 0 0
OW 13 793 147 1934 1303 47 0 0
VODI 0 312 69 1537 2895 442 3 0
ODI 0 116 20 648 4566 1213 68 0
CDI 0 103 14 550 3716 10574 3228 0
VCDI 0 24 9 121 2011 11793 20396 7838
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85849 22930 380 1936 612 23 0 0
OW 7 717 203 1885 527 15 0 0
VODI 0 163 45 2509 2522 66 5 0
ODI 0 54 13 552 6433 946 37 0
CDI 0 56 12 393 2806 11369 2229 0
VCDI 0 43 5 91 1522 12888 19960 7245
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88374 21271 370 2183 492 0 0 0
OW 44 965 204 2044 780 5 0 0
VODI 0 206 54 1973 3292 130 3 0
ODI 0 26 12 714 4874 1628 21 0
CDI 0 25 8 331 2530 13609 2619 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 962 14254 17464 5580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88406 21497 411 2624 675 1 0 0
OW 12 711 164 1681 816 15 0 0
VODI 0 232 52 1806 2968 134 3 0
ODI 0 29 12 801 4771 1457 39 0
CDI 0 24 9 333 2703 13585 2583 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 997 14434 17482 5580

Date: 2021-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90734 20698 335 2274 137 29 0 0
OW 27 1260 217 2599 532 25 1 0
VODI 0 311 61 2579 2541 204 6 0
ODI 0 36 13 867 4351 1341 49 0
CDI 0 67 11 346 2595 13156 4066 0
VCDI 0 4 1 20 803 13640 17276 3836
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90749 20874 367 2820 224 32 0 0
OW 12 1081 178 2337 458 35 1 0
VODI 0 318 67 2210 2464 181 11 0
ODI 0 31 15 962 4308 1317 62 0
CDI 0 72 11 330 2707 12729 4061 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 798 14101 17263 3836

Date: 2021-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91247 23138 357 1859 107 25 0 0
OW 9 931 230 2000 288 18 0 0
VODI 0 82 34 3187 1906 58 0 0
ODI 0 48 7 489 6443 842 1 0
CDI 0 33 13 163 2390 17423 1943 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 202 11536 16882 3157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91253 22357 385 2595 432 35 0 0
OW 3 1283 151 1704 996 62 0 0
VODI 0 433 67 1955 2445 337 0 0
ODI 0 62 18 1007 3741 1697 11 0
CDI 0 96 19 408 3132 13288 2516 0
VCDI 0 1 1 29 590 14483 16299 3157

Date: 2021-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92601 24235 387 1651 104 5 0 0
OW 21 722 180 2348 357 18 0 0
VODI 1 110 38 2406 2726 165 0 0
ODI 0 53 4 379 5308 1114 7 0
CDI 0 54 6 186 3345 17687 524 0
VCDI 0 6 0 9 338 19126 10689 138
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92618 23423 380 2187 306 20 0 0
OW 5 1204 140 1815 788 140 0 0
VODI 0 354 71 1898 2548 402 0 0
ODI 0 77 14 609 3981 1557 17 0
CDI 0 114 9 433 3760 15248 790 0
VCDI 0 8 1 37 795 20748 10413 138

Date: 2021-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94858 23514 341 1436 122 5 0 0
OW 2 1044 182 2059 555 23 0 0
VODI 0 179 42 2000 2849 263 0 0
ODI 0 86 11 348 4306 2255 27 0
CDI 0 57 4 146 3159 17359 759 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 289 22108 6594 65
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94762 22828 328 1762 545 66 0 0
OW 98 1226 154 1504 679 249 0 0
VODI 0 574 69 1700 2508 541 19 0
ODI 0 117 17 672 2958 2385 63 0
CDI 0 135 12 351 3936 15799 983 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 654 22973 6315 65


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