Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-06-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1882 120 636 178 37 5 0
OW 0 345 54 498 222 28 4 0
VODI 0 225 18 368 549 148 30 0
ODI 0 146 15 328 735 427 62 2
CDI 0 269 21 229 994 3022 2132 0
VCDI 0 38 5 159 587 3327 12420 15601
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2127 123 722 229 28 18 0
OW 0 366 38 445 246 50 17 0
VODI 0 239 16 420 567 172 42 0
ODI 0 144 10 289 795 394 55 2
CDI 0 272 19 249 1144 3363 2611 0
VCDI 0 44 7 154 492 2114 9726 18117
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2944 136 733 213 27 6 0
OW 0 286 48 487 181 28 1 0
VODI 0 108 15 558 789 74 6 0
ODI 0 76 12 233 936 372 14 1
CDI 0 278 25 214 1320 3439 1639 1
VCDI 0 10 2 126 607 2568 9766 17587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3150 135 790 258 40 2 0
OW 0 329 34 471 307 25 0 0
VODI 0 137 14 458 1001 49 1 0
ODI 0 147 12 174 1029 236 6 0
CDI 0 397 23 241 1965 4720 99 1
VCDI 0 25 4 75 784 10949 8707 9071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3209 134 873 296 38 2 0
OW 0 283 38 448 414 26 0 0
VODI 0 131 16 407 923 46 2 0
ODI 0 138 7 172 1029 206 8 0
CDI 0 394 22 227 1887 4674 76 3
VCDI 0 30 5 82 795 11029 8727 9069

Date: 2021-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3420 140 904 239 16 0 0
OW 0 344 33 612 445 8 0 0
VODI 0 151 12 509 802 31 0 0
ODI 0 117 14 235 1218 272 12 0
CDI 0 219 17 152 1409 5114 384 0
VCDI 0 66 9 130 1493 14267 7954 5118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3498 138 1002 313 14 0 0
OW 0 264 33 581 479 11 0 0
VODI 0 141 17 445 751 25 0 0
ODI 0 91 10 216 1120 269 15 0
CDI 0 253 19 171 1457 5124 397 0
VCDI 0 70 8 127 1486 14265 7938 5118

Date: 2021-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90 4230 158 916 186 0 0 0
OW 5 169 49 647 217 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 10 621 763 2 0 0
ODI 0 75 10 205 2049 196 4 0
CDI 0 113 11 110 1224 5553 360 0
VCDI 0 8 3 36 3299 12948 6626 4905
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88 3867 156 1127 382 0 0 0
OW 7 247 35 488 442 6 0 0
VODI 0 159 16 404 742 17 0 0
ODI 0 106 11 256 1162 237 17 0
CDI 0 235 16 166 1447 5252 501 0
VCDI 0 49 7 94 3563 13187 6472 4905

Date: 2021-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 147 4556 156 1054 145 10 0 0
OW 5 248 45 672 273 5 0 0
VODI 0 105 15 532 757 16 0 0
ODI 0 113 15 252 1896 322 8 0
CDI 0 100 13 136 1994 4387 309 0
VCDI 0 0 1 57 1613 15718 6892 3299
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 145 4130 149 1366 373 12 0 0
OW 7 288 31 343 350 11 0 0
VODI 0 235 25 338 639 34 3 0
ODI 0 167 15 294 1164 364 31 0
CDI 0 271 19 274 2415 4334 447 0
VCDI 0 31 6 88 1737 15703 6728 3299

Date: 2021-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 601 5066 147 709 114 5 0 0
OW 7 312 39 672 242 6 0 0
VODI 0 141 24 533 1018 33 3 0
ODI 0 88 16 276 2312 52 5 0
CDI 0 96 9 195 2370 2982 1402 0
VCDI 0 5 5 98 1756 12586 7600 4341
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 599 4434 142 1034 298 7 0 0
OW 9 468 25 276 214 15 0 0
VODI 0 318 26 364 512 52 15 0
ODI 0 172 22 290 1906 110 44 0
CDI 0 250 17 407 3060 2554 1197 0
VCDI 0 66 8 112 1822 12926 7754 4341


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