Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-06-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80033 16606 384 1892 512 69 7 0
OW 26 863 158 1485 767 72 12 0
VODI 0 439 51 1156 1993 381 59 6
ODI 0 240 38 709 3233 1772 108 4
CDI 0 314 30 413 3024 7858 3092 16
VCDI 0 38 5 159 1487 10010 22726 24801
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80418 17013 396 1988 563 130 20 0
OW 24 925 123 1361 775 187 24 0
VODI 0 511 62 1205 1934 673 56 6
ODI 0 246 34 843 3208 1566 92 4
CDI 0 317 26 430 3314 7984 3733 12
VCDI 0 44 7 154 1699 8070 19723 27148
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81792 17493 378 1873 489 75 6 0
OW 23 853 152 1411 514 79 2 0
VODI 0 226 53 1640 2066 245 15 0
ODI 0 114 17 472 3892 1103 23 1
CDI 0 306 32 386 4052 9327 2490 2
VCDI 0 10 2 126 1091 7937 20455 25825
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82160 17789 374 2099 546 53 2 0
OW 19 866 133 1611 640 90 4 0
VODI 0 286 51 1505 2436 255 12 0
ODI 0 198 15 412 3612 1033 27 0
CDI 0 423 29 452 5467 10943 397 1
VCDI 0 25 4 75 1495 17710 17619 16180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82160 17941 391 2408 662 62 2 0
OW 19 738 119 1391 774 93 3 0
VODI 0 264 52 1402 2500 280 13 0
ODI 0 189 10 416 3367 957 27 0
CDI 0 425 29 455 5330 10681 421 3
VCDI 0 30 5 82 1563 18011 17595 16178

Date: 2021-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82210 18708 374 2322 479 25 0 0
OW 18 872 133 1815 910 31 0 0
VODI 0 380 57 1641 2481 207 0 0
ODI 0 172 22 696 3397 972 13 0
CDI 0 243 24 448 5582 10557 1004 0
VCDI 0 66 9 132 2365 21803 16325 10555
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82210 18866 394 2654 658 28 0 0
OW 18 707 111 1642 974 37 0 0
VODI 0 367 62 1512 2526 186 0 0
ODI 0 154 18 634 3083 911 17 0
CDI 0 277 26 484 5633 10457 996 0
VCDI 0 70 8 128 2340 21976 16329 10555

Date: 2021-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83622 19208 412 2280 348 6 0 0
OW 20 563 162 1993 422 14 0 0
VODI 0 252 29 2280 2046 84 0 0
ODI 0 123 25 595 5995 679 7 0
CDI 0 115 14 260 5308 12559 810 0
VCDI 0 8 3 44 4938 16343 13959 11522
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83620 18442 420 3056 729 10 0 0
OW 22 714 95 1595 1037 45 0 0
VODI 0 521 55 1352 2563 317 3 0
ODI 0 199 33 702 2828 860 36 0
CDI 0 339 32 627 5625 10496 1185 3
VCDI 0 54 10 120 6275 17957 13552 11519

Date: 2021-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82086 21935 449 2573 419 15 0 0
OW 16 490 139 2031 894 38 0 0
VODI 0 160 42 1629 2954 150 1 0
ODI 0 143 22 572 5255 909 15 0
CDI 0 100 15 316 4930 12164 1339 0
VCDI 0 0 1 57 1881 19875 16169 7264
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82083 20842 432 3258 830 31 0 0
OW 19 738 93 1335 1257 80 2 0
VODI 0 500 53 1099 2698 264 7 0
ODI 0 307 42 601 3053 922 67 0
CDI 0 410 42 797 5903 10108 1984 3
VCDI 0 31 6 88 2592 21746 15464 7261

Date: 2021-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84959 20790 438 2171 449 5 0 0
OW 16 639 144 2083 1304 21 0 0
VODI 0 223 53 1504 3256 201 4 0
ODI 0 102 27 552 4990 900 9 0
CDI 0 96 9 449 4347 10936 2556 0
VCDI 0 5 5 99 2091 16041 16993 8581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84957 19608 421 2805 896 19 1 0
OW 18 979 102 1235 1325 48 1 0
VODI 0 582 65 1087 2420 278 20 0
ODI 0 285 46 708 3725 789 70 0
CDI 0 334 33 893 5949 9356 2894 0
VCDI 0 67 9 130 2122 17614 16576 8581


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