Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-06-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77213 15108 336 2077 386 65 19 0
OW 35 517 96 1655 727 72 16 0
VODI 0 359 41 1220 1594 258 48 0
ODI 0 324 35 736 2186 1196 135 6
CDI 0 203 27 571 5202 5817 2772 77
VCDI 0 166 17 172 1978 10109 36324 17153
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77173 15614 377 2435 529 71 13 0
OW 32 577 65 1552 818 93 13 0
VODI 0 534 62 953 1451 347 47 0
ODI 0 357 35 742 2188 1314 203 8
CDI 0 254 28 643 5470 6116 3267 51
VCDI 0 159 10 225 2433 12288 35580 12921
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79089 15294 357 2279 494 63 7 0
OW 29 626 120 1658 534 54 10 0
VODI 0 403 41 1405 1772 153 14 3
ODI 0 182 29 595 4026 958 35 4
CDI 0 183 19 404 4429 7701 1753 16
VCDI 0 109 8 177 1538 11381 30973 18123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79651 16206 387 2002 487 77 7 0
OW 28 877 138 1562 651 116 13 0
VODI 0 453 54 1198 1829 411 37 6
ODI 0 264 47 596 3302 1854 107 2
CDI 0 238 24 414 3318 7992 2426 9
VCDI 0 93 9 175 1706 9620 26101 22561
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79651 16239 397 2173 558 85 5 0
OW 28 859 132 1417 601 120 15 0
VODI 0 440 49 1183 1893 506 36 6
ODI 0 257 46 574 3192 1953 107 2
CDI 0 243 26 420 3270 7340 2346 8
VCDI 0 93 9 180 1779 10066 26182 22562

Date: 2021-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80228 16798 394 1952 637 57 15 0
OW 25 880 132 1394 798 99 19 0
VODI 0 463 59 1094 2069 490 65 5
ODI 0 242 39 747 3206 1692 87 3
CDI 0 341 28 435 3383 7896 3336 20
VCDI 0 16 1 142 1568 9155 21402 25636
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80228 16813 410 2176 749 63 13 0
OW 25 863 116 1200 807 113 18 0
VODI 0 480 61 1080 2064 547 64 6
ODI 0 219 34 707 3048 1641 96 2
CDI 0 349 31 477 3410 7575 3002 20
VCDI 0 16 1 124 1583 9450 21731 25636

Date: 2021-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80910 17629 375 1818 447 73 4 0
OW 24 952 171 1318 340 80 1 0
VODI 0 192 41 2004 1624 197 10 0
ODI 0 97 11 364 4854 896 31 0
CDI 0 258 31 371 3750 10293 2017 2
VCDI 0 5 1 95 887 6731 23882 24262
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80911 17091 383 2289 735 196 1 0
OW 23 864 101 1039 815 254 9 0
VODI 0 565 74 1170 2020 763 72 0
ODI 0 245 35 817 2989 1171 113 2
CDI 0 291 26 445 3066 8411 3521 0
VCDI 0 77 11 210 2277 7475 22229 24262

Date: 2021-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81969 17724 362 1999 532 49 4 0
OW 20 879 136 1474 572 89 2 0
VODI 0 294 60 1606 2167 280 2 0
ODI 0 177 14 487 3488 1127 21 0
CDI 0 353 31 495 4462 10007 2007 0
VCDI 0 1 2 166 1434 14805 22724 15027
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81969 16752 344 2306 974 238 3 0
OW 20 1044 90 867 935 303 14 0
VODI 0 774 91 1415 2194 742 31 0
ODI 0 355 29 704 2529 1018 72 0
CDI 0 409 41 716 3786 9256 3367 0
VCDI 0 94 10 219 2237 14800 21273 15027

Date: 2021-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82117 18312 377 2236 430 48 0 0
OW 18 860 117 1763 707 78 0 0
VODI 0 319 56 1524 2503 238 0 0
ODI 0 155 14 552 3416 1211 8 0
CDI 0 273 24 447 5296 11159 549 0
VCDI 0 44 5 133 1904 19420 14364 16371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82117 17276 334 2596 1000 309 0 0
OW 18 1035 93 1243 1071 312 0 0
VODI 0 810 83 1361 2388 466 10 0
ODI 0 311 37 557 2451 975 37 0
CDI 0 452 38 732 4992 11697 1475 1
VCDI 0 79 8 166 2354 18395 13399 16370


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