Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-05-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-31

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 0 4 33 75 22 0
OW 0 8 5 10 2 15 12 0
VODI 0 11 2 27 3 21 17 0
ODI 0 21 2 29 15 27 15 0
CDI 0 19 6 55 361 811 165 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 286 3237 11732 19853
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 2 35 79 31 0
OW 0 1 1 9 0 22 17 0
VODI 0 8 4 9 3 41 28 0
ODI 0 8 2 28 4 50 22 0
CDI 0 43 8 74 225 553 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 433 3441 11737 19853

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 19 4 1 0 0
ODI 0 22 9 48 83 8 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 78 19 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 22 68 1646 1068
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 0
ODI 0 13 6 32 12 8 5 0
CDI 0 10 4 55 142 19 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 30 68 1648 1068

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 14 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 28 31 1 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 27 158 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 402 311 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 111 3029 5514 261
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 7 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 15 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 50 6 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 57 380 224 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 244 3126 5514 261

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 45 5 17 8 0 0 0
OW 0 93 5 32 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 7 11 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 52 2 5 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 66 2 58 83 70 0 0
VCDI 0 146 10 106 129 314 3307 998
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3 0 7 9 0 0 0
OW 0 18 4 36 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 6 9 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 71 4 5 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 102 7 45 53 57 50 0
VCDI 0 181 10 127 158 327 3257 998

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 6 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 7 43 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 0 46 22 10 0 0
CDI 0 43 5 61 241 371 28 0
VCDI 0 3 1 34 369 3725 2154 10
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 1 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 6 8 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 5 31 11 7 5 0
CDI 0 54 5 111 192 261 106 0
VCDI 0 5 2 39 434 3838 2071 10

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 265 14 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 98 9 52 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 10 83 64 22 0 0
ODI 0 209 14 91 138 110 8 0
CDI 0 91 19 226 665 1178 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 329 115 1178 72
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6 1 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 8 6 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 101 6 40 58 25 1 0
ODI 0 154 10 64 70 75 31 0
CDI 0 450 41 315 705 1188 262 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 374 137 1013 72

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 159 8 95 10 0 0 0
OW 0 59 6 193 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 9 328 188 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 153 561 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 440 1654 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 391 1780 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 141 3 128 43 1 0 0
OW 0 47 9 181 122 12 0 0
VODI 0 39 10 190 261 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 141 294 219 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 142 478 1333 212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 525 1692 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4864 4174 78 391 5 0 0 0
OW 0 123 27 212 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 4 232 131 2 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 71 399 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 372 133 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4864 3886 71 435 19 0 0 0
OW 0 210 9 122 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 180 22 154 150 15 0 0
ODI 0 37 7 129 225 70 0 0
CDI 0 9 3 98 497 71 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5523 2755 33 267 53 2 0 0
OW 0 36 9 198 34 12 0 0
VODI 0 1 7 547 141 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 218 307 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 610 482 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 174 159 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5523 2743 30 299 80 15 0 0
OW 0 43 11 173 53 23 0 0
VODI 0 6 8 348 62 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 306 212 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 640 247 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 131 400 177 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8279 3484 51 194 70 19 1 0
OW 0 7 19 115 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 64 135 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 148 52 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 107 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 116 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8279 3484 54 224 89 19 1 0
OW 0 7 16 98 79 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 52 217 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 32 44 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 32 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 716 11 21 2 0 0 0
OW 0 110 15 63 9 2 0 0
VODI 0 4 4 166 64 9 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 233 21 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 387 1469 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 782 1505 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 635 7 15 2 2 8 0
OW 0 110 3 38 11 7 5 0
VODI 0 76 14 93 78 4 10 0
ODI 0 9 6 67 98 13 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 449 1277 428 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 64 980 1193 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 143 18 107 15 0 0 0
OW 0 57 7 196 53 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 254 246 32 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 57 479 187 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 558 1108 250 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 120 902 3726 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 125 17 166 56 0 0 0
OW 0 25 2 164 63 1 0 0
VODI 0 43 7 159 190 85 0 0
ODI 0 16 1 93 310 208 63 0
CDI 0 5 2 52 631 932 553 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 221 1004 3389 2

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15501 3139 67 341 45 0 0 0
OW 0 15 3 287 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 176 268 3 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 4 187 48 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1 29 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15501 3147 68 494 89 0 0 0
OW 0 7 2 274 200 5 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 37 278 33 2 0
ODI 0 6 0 5 13 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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