Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-05-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72527 15561 198 1076 360 113 0 0
OW 60 161 36 513 252 65 2 0
VODI 0 39 15 350 633 129 11 0
ODI 0 1 1 225 935 359 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 1622 1986 469 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 217 1931 5125 4034
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73659 14540 164 945 393 122 0 0
OW 60 247 59 440 247 67 0 0
VODI 0 118 19 367 619 138 0 0
ODI 0 31 9 278 1046 269 20 0
CDI 0 5 3 158 1631 1792 355 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 207 2009 4562 4507
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75104 13349 158 931 363 98 14 0
OW 57 293 59 516 155 44 6 0
VODI 0 112 12 570 621 73 4 0
ODI 0 23 8 315 1355 227 11 0
CDI 0 5 1 132 1377 1685 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 226 3270 5161 2617
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74988 13666 187 940 395 92 28 0
OW 52 396 53 489 185 39 12 0
VODI 0 183 43 566 718 60 18 0
ODI 0 41 11 529 1044 167 26 0
CDI 0 8 2 320 1653 1408 222 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 260 3817 2859 3621
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74988 13760 185 950 415 96 27 0
OW 52 337 54 490 184 34 13 0
VODI 0 165 45 585 718 63 18 0
ODI 0 27 10 502 1054 158 15 0
CDI 0 5 2 315 1628 1329 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 256 3903 2895 3621

Date: 2021-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76150 12874 170 1095 216 80 39 0
OW 51 319 53 653 272 36 21 0
VODI 0 143 15 604 757 99 29 0
ODI 0 53 13 418 864 182 59 0
CDI 0 17 5 176 1685 1564 391 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 242 3471 3517 2729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76150 12965 176 1123 234 79 38 0
OW 51 234 41 652 230 32 20 0
VODI 0 150 22 586 803 89 30 0
ODI 0 48 14 409 870 205 50 0
CDI 0 9 3 165 1628 1430 357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 49 271 3597 3561 2729

Date: 2021-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75977 13477 205 1094 181 96 23 0
OW 50 242 60 739 130 27 12 0
VODI 0 18 15 1033 612 61 17 0
ODI 0 8 3 301 1182 170 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 1373 2268 298 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 281 2531 4254 2295
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75977 13239 199 1335 256 113 32 0
OW 50 263 37 611 309 62 17 0
VODI 0 195 35 617 687 193 30 0
ODI 0 39 9 415 531 189 70 0
CDI 0 9 3 231 1496 1649 565 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 480 2947 3907 2295

Date: 2021-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76584 13452 213 1181 232 99 3 0
OW 50 171 28 796 246 45 6 0
VODI 0 51 17 671 735 105 12 0
ODI 0 10 8 247 936 180 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 1304 1985 633 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 256 2293 3880 2502
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76584 12925 201 1378 352 149 10 0
OW 50 369 13 477 377 113 18 0
VODI 0 289 24 484 630 163 31 0
ODI 0 90 15 346 546 168 54 0
CDI 0 11 13 295 1464 1670 828 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 340 2444 3623 2502

Date: 2021-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77213 13079 214 1395 237 64 19 0
OW 35 122 33 887 326 31 13 0
VODI 0 46 12 544 694 124 41 0
ODI 0 9 6 212 806 176 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 192 1393 1697 710 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 268 2544 5535 358
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77213 12518 201 1545 391 112 49 0
OW 35 398 19 466 391 124 37 0
VODI 0 275 22 528 451 106 70 0
ODI 0 62 17 375 594 114 77 0
CDI 0 3 6 273 1606 1654 857 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 291 2526 5292 358


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