Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-05-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 296 10 118 22 0 0 0
OW 0 32 7 158 72 1 0 0
VODI 0 26 9 161 243 19 0 0
ODI 0 40 12 145 385 159 28 0
CDI 0 58 11 386 1126 1189 379 2
VCDI 0 20 5 147 724 4260 15001 20615
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 274 13 137 9 0 0 0
OW 0 67 13 165 64 1 0 0
VODI 0 71 12 242 291 15 11 0
ODI 0 90 16 163 391 164 21 0
CDI 0 195 31 449 1093 966 402 1
VCDI 0 36 8 190 1082 5642 15230 18311
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 367 25 171 25 1 0 0
OW 0 78 10 192 98 2 1 0
VODI 0 80 13 211 409 37 8 0
ODI 0 59 7 195 444 164 17 0
CDI 0 146 23 331 1308 1506 226 0
VCDI 0 7 3 92 538 4972 17579 16521
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 430 27 201 64 1 0 0
OW 0 116 24 223 132 19 0 0
VODI 0 83 13 217 400 66 5 0
ODI 0 56 6 198 459 133 24 0
CDI 0 76 15 339 1365 1254 181 0
VCDI 0 68 6 185 797 5879 16484 16320
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 436 27 249 97 1 0 0
OW 0 102 19 196 119 18 2 0
VODI 0 90 16 215 379 64 7 0
ODI 0 59 7 173 446 144 35 0
CDI 0 77 16 332 1354 1205 194 0
VCDI 0 65 6 198 822 5920 16456 16320

Date: 2021-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 524 30 168 44 1 0 0
OW 0 136 18 163 236 12 3 0
VODI 0 103 15 269 352 57 11 0
ODI 0 112 15 230 372 139 19 0
CDI 0 157 26 255 1267 1622 381 0
VCDI 0 115 13 206 883 6827 18394 12691
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 535 29 177 95 5 3 0
OW 0 115 20 184 186 7 5 0
VODI 0 107 13 253 344 53 9 0
ODI 0 115 16 216 382 162 29 0
CDI 0 158 26 241 1236 1500 379 0
VCDI 0 117 13 220 911 6931 18383 12691

Date: 2021-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 606 49 205 61 0 0 0
OW 0 168 14 318 140 6 0 0
VODI 0 84 12 361 388 34 6 0
ODI 0 91 14 172 820 238 38 0
CDI 0 66 3 153 1352 2099 311 0
VCDI 0 146 10 113 389 5186 18676 13537
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 487 38 251 122 4 8 0
OW 0 81 9 274 152 3 5 0
VODI 0 177 15 199 318 90 10 0
ODI 0 112 13 174 415 268 80 0
CDI 0 123 17 257 1425 1725 748 0
VCDI 0 181 10 167 718 5473 18180 13537

Date: 2021-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 691 63 387 88 0 0 0
OW 0 122 15 337 189 15 2 0
VODI 0 78 9 300 453 54 8 0
ODI 0 57 10 172 752 255 46 0
CDI 0 50 2 131 1361 2098 589 3
VCDI 0 169 10 117 550 3639 14997 18047
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 484 53 363 167 1 8 0
OW 0 122 13 255 130 21 6 0
VODI 0 178 14 230 349 90 24 0
ODI 0 108 13 212 476 239 120 0
CDI 0 88 6 239 1680 2069 1228 1
VCDI 0 187 10 145 591 3641 14256 18049

Date: 2021-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 799 82 476 109 0 0 0
OW 0 130 19 347 201 41 3 0
VODI 0 116 9 315 439 78 7 0
ODI 0 72 9 170 730 232 46 0
CDI 0 57 4 132 1478 1890 1157 30
VCDI 0 152 15 146 738 3732 21193 10712
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 525 60 373 144 14 10 0
OW 0 169 24 240 147 39 9 0
VODI 0 197 13 280 323 169 42 0
ODI 0 154 18 240 400 200 147 0
CDI 0 101 5 262 2042 2164 2317 0
VCDI 0 180 18 191 639 3387 19881 10742


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