Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72527 16079 212 1288 382 113 0 0 OW 60 208 46 849 363 66 2 0 VODI 0 65 25 704 1102 151 11 0 ODI 0 41 13 474 1740 549 68 9 CDI 0 58 11 673 3712 3998 1118 55 VCDI 0 40 12 275 1609 10163 30948 37229	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73659 15048 182 1183 402 122 0 0 OW 60 354 75 783 338 68 0 0 VODI 0 206 42 839 1102 157 11 0 ODI 0 122 26 585 1740 497 48 1 CDI 0 301 51 822 3578 4163 1064 59 VCDI 0 65 19 398 2237 11348 28840 36453	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75104 13918 185 1226 388 99 14 0 OW 57 441 80 908 337 50 8 0 VODI 0 218 30 1080 1370 120 26 0 ODI 0 141 20 693 2357 518 72 0 CDI 0 407 64 916 3927 5341 582 66 VCDI 0 7 3 121 1018 13171 35875 26090	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74988 14321 234 1299 487 93 28 0 OW 52 670 97 955 452 65 16 0 VODI 0 342 68 1042 1457 181 34 0 ODI 0 224 29 892 2060 473 94 0 CDI 0 415 67 1048 4483 5133 664 7 VCDI 0 68 6 207 1296 14088 29590 29323	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74988 14444 231 1353 574 99 27 0 OW 52 573 89 916 443 56 21 0 VODI 0 332 78 1082 1432 196 33 0 ODI 0 204 31 838 2008 496 91 0 CDI 0 422 66 1036 4453 5133 645 8 VCDI 0 65 6 218 1325 14053 29609 29322

Date: 2021-05-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76150 13815 211 1392 277 81 39 0 OW 51 593 86 1082 637 52 24 0 VODI 0 383 57 1103 1483 189 54 0 ODI 0 326 46 937 1695 523 154 0 CDI 0 517 80 961 4492 5885 1487 9 VCDI 0 119 15 291 1765 15769 32282 21936	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76150 13872 217 1462 373 85 41 0 OW 51 512 71 1046 558 42 25 0 VODI 0 390 64 1079 1515 189 46 0 ODI 0 322 50 926 1680 581 141 0 CDI 0 536 78 936 4384 5622 1455 12 VCDI 0 121 15 317 1839 15980 32332 21933

Date: 2021-05-31:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75977 14888 285 1444 253 96 23 0 OW 50 613 111 1382 352 33 12 0 VODI 0 230 55 1978 1285 125 23 0 ODI 0 343 33 794 2734 614 63 0 CDI 0 219 33 558 4218 7742 922 0 VCDI 0 149 11 174 1407 12738 32817 22264	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75977 14170 251 1783 429 118 40 0 OW 50 512 66 1110 608 77 22 0 VODI 0 562 83 1118 1335 357 41 0 ODI 0 333 42 921 1339 756 197 0 CDI 0 679 74 1130 4402 6194 1844 0 VCDI 0 186 12 268 2136 13846 31716 22264

Date: 2021-06-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76584 15134 330 1760 340 99 3 0 OW 50 550 82 1560 569 65 8 0 VODI 0 288 45 1392 1596 199 20 0 ODI 0 344 42 725 2363 905 98 0 CDI 0 196 23 514 4158 7364 1823 3 VCDI 0 186 14 152 1402 9611 27615 28836	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76584 13952 290 1928 593 160 18 0 OW 50 700 44 949 641 146 24 0 VODI 0 718 63 1068 1329 333 58 0 ODI 0 419 52 862 1425 959 202 0 CDI 0 689 73 1076 4766 6715 2952 1 VCDI 0 220 14 220 1674 9930 26313 28838

Date: 2021-06-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 77213 15108 336 2077 386 65 19 0 OW 35 517 96 1655 727 72 16 0 VODI 0 359 41 1220 1594 258 48 0 ODI 0 324 35 736 2186 1196 135 6 CDI 0 203 27 571 5202 5817 2772 77 VCDI 0 166 17 172 1978 10109 36324 17153	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 77213 13707 283 2091 657 130 59 0 OW 35 819 59 922 695 196 46 0 VODI 0 816 73 1101 1124 432 118 1 ODI 0 444 56 963 1637 995 279 16 CDI 0 680 61 1088 5540 5783 4622 127 VCDI 0 211 20 266 2420 9981 34190 17092

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