Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-05-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 237 16 123 16 0 0 0
OW 0 4 3 66 97 3 0 0
VODI 0 11 2 74 215 30 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 67 205 188 5 0
CDI 0 36 13 114 474 673 260 3
VCDI 0 21 2 111 646 3675 12011 26449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 269 14 95 14 0 0 0
OW 0 10 2 76 89 1 0 0
VODI 0 14 1 101 182 33 0 0
ODI 0 15 3 67 249 161 3 0
CDI 0 44 9 104 491 655 223 0
VCDI 0 29 7 164 861 3736 12394 25750
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 258 18 84 6 0 0 0
OW 0 6 2 95 128 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 2 128 282 17 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 57 357 103 1 0
CDI 0 28 7 151 765 918 318 0
VCDI 0 21 6 159 851 3633 14362 23073
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 261 15 130 25 0 0 0
OW 0 12 3 141 95 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 130 243 15 0 0
ODI 0 11 3 130 346 138 13 0
CDI 0 33 12 270 1068 1236 448 2
VCDI 0 10 1 164 720 4476 15342 20366
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 269 15 165 31 0 0 0
OW 0 4 2 125 89 2 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 108 271 25 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 131 331 151 21 0
CDI 0 39 13 259 1052 1223 458 2
VCDI 0 9 1 177 723 4465 15324 20366

Date: 2021-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 285 11 139 21 0 0 0
OW 0 43 13 163 70 1 0 0
VODI 0 62 11 161 304 12 10 0
ODI 0 80 16 168 401 138 23 0
CDI 0 136 23 462 1172 1037 325 1
VCDI 0 23 3 146 916 5033 15826 18631
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 298 16 189 23 0 0 0
OW 0 27 9 142 78 1 0 0
VODI 0 60 10 142 331 10 12 0
ODI 0 79 15 149 358 165 23 0
CDI 0 141 23 454 1083 1005 350 0
VCDI 0 24 4 163 1011 5040 15799 18632

Date: 2021-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 335 25 136 21 0 0 0
OW 0 86 13 171 73 2 0 0
VODI 0 75 15 308 370 16 7 0
ODI 0 56 9 217 558 151 15 0
CDI 0 156 26 361 1383 1554 273 0
VCDI 0 1 5 49 536 5174 16743 16946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 306 24 160 18 0 0 0
OW 0 41 8 143 107 1 0 0
VODI 0 67 6 168 339 33 15 0
ODI 0 74 16 157 379 177 34 0
CDI 0 179 30 419 886 960 676 38
VCDI 0 42 9 195 1212 5726 16313 16908

Date: 2021-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 414 26 161 52 3 0 0
OW 0 87 17 188 143 7 1 0
VODI 0 83 8 229 421 38 5 0
ODI 0 53 11 147 516 125 23 0
CDI 0 115 15 356 1376 1238 153 0
VCDI 0 39 5 150 551 5861 16922 16327
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 354 19 118 52 1 0 0
OW 0 66 13 117 99 13 2 0
VODI 0 74 10 184 382 60 10 0
ODI 0 67 13 165 402 142 37 0
CDI 0 191 23 438 1135 989 443 0
VCDI 0 39 4 209 989 6067 16612 16327

Date: 2021-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 487 34 200 40 2 0 0
OW 0 126 20 229 148 16 0 0
VODI 0 115 17 247 369 56 10 0
ODI 0 75 13 242 397 127 18 0
CDI 0 112 21 313 1225 1467 229 0
VCDI 0 80 10 226 812 5992 19559 12832
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 373 15 213 56 7 1 0
OW 0 85 14 129 119 53 0 0
VODI 0 110 18 179 314 103 20 0
ODI 0 93 17 199 337 105 59 0
CDI 0 212 27 389 886 970 310 0
VCDI 0 122 24 348 1279 6422 19426 12832


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