Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-14:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72526 15675 229 1335 360 97 0 0 OW 62 135 34 532 535 73 5 0 VODI 0 63 14 432 991 123 21 0 ODI 0 31 12 313 1137 580 69 0 CDI 0 74 22 362 2306 3018 891 11 VCDI 0 36 7 288 1730 10947 27599 44373	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-16:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73324 14854 214 1290 467 127 0 0 OW 62 130 38 517 592 76 10 0 VODI 0 49 14 477 1028 146 26 0 ODI 0 15 4 332 1107 630 89 0 CDI 0 44 9 433 2246 3150 1232 59 VCDI 0 29 7 281 2262 10578 28078 43022	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72940 15306 239 1252 469 102 1 0 OW 61 121 46 737 433 66 6 0 VODI 0 14 7 700 1134 87 15 1 ODI 0 15 2 238 1759 443 38 25 CDI 0 33 10 396 3210 3901 895 52 VCDI 0 23 11 236 1510 9722 32053 38739	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73205 15274 237 1324 411 106 0 0 OW 60 115 35 872 421 62 3 0 VODI 0 14 11 616 1139 135 4 0 ODI 0 11 3 327 1776 591 58 17 CDI 0 33 12 498 3368 4458 1177 51 VCDI 0 30 8 268 1565 9692 30911 38150	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73205 15277 246 1477 503 111 0 0 OW 60 104 23 751 409 65 3 0 VODI 0 21 12 579 1122 134 5 2 ODI 0 7 4 329 1782 643 65 22 CDI 0 39 13 489 3296 4513 1263 50 VCDI 0 29 8 280 1568 9578 30817 38144

Date: 2021-05-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72487 16191 209 1226 366 121 0 0 OW 60 273 61 808 386 62 2 0 VODI 0 141 35 704 1140 144 19 0 ODI 0 96 23 498 1787 529 60 4 CDI 0 158 28 809 3587 4153 1101 57 VCDI 0 44 10 290 1846 10682 31503 35348	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72487 16186 217 1405 451 125 0 0 OW 60 267 53 690 381 62 1 0 VODI 0 150 36 656 1179 147 22 0 ODI 0 91 21 484 1685 559 61 8 CDI 0 164 28 788 3517 4111 1188 57 VCDI 0 45 11 312 1899 10687 31413 35344

Date: 2021-05-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74032 14835 179 1094 375 111 1 0 OW 59 449 104 788 268 49 5 0 VODI 0 148 37 1226 1207 100 18 0 ODI 0 105 15 540 2899 451 38 0 CDI 0 365 57 876 3932 6050 560 40 VCDI 0 1 6 53 878 11881 31270 31946	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74032 14738 196 1371 512 149 6 0 OW 59 325 64 599 410 72 4 0 VODI 0 245 31 723 1221 189 25 0 ODI 0 132 34 575 1795 523 86 2 CDI 0 368 46 847 3209 4006 1290 146 VCDI 0 95 27 462 2412 13703 30481 31838

Date: 2021-05-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74444 14657 200 1245 450 118 23 0 OW 55 479 83 981 431 59 11 0 VODI 0 267 30 1034 1596 130 29 0 ODI 0 171 23 644 2273 520 86 0 CDI 0 398 58 950 4324 4882 626 11 VCDI 0 39 5 190 1104 14880 32354 27188	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74442 14465 191 1409 555 157 28 0 OW 57 382 58 656 470 71 13 0 VODI 0 368 35 801 1299 211 31 0 ODI 0 275 40 652 1766 563 169 5 CDI 0 456 62 1091 3691 3709 1272 12 VCDI 0 65 13 435 2397 15878 31616 27182

Date: 2021-05-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75862 13818 220 1412 297 97 31 0 OW 52 633 99 1024 553 53 16 0 VODI 0 386 53 1058 1519 172 42 0 ODI 0 281 48 854 1866 528 110 0 CDI 0 454 74 995 4355 5532 1165 11 VCDI 0 80 10 300 1633 13841 32324 25190	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75862 13540 204 1532 492 152 56 0 OW 52 461 64 599 558 108 24 0 VODI 0 471 46 891 1259 277 57 0 ODI 0 352 62 865 1587 466 203 0 CDI 0 629 84 1132 3608 3797 981 7 VCDI 0 199 44 624 2719 15423 32367 25194

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