Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-05-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72454 15059 183 918 318 91 20 0
OW 65 241 41 567 276 33 25 0
VODI 0 73 18 299 565 69 41 0
ODI 0 7 4 153 512 196 66 0
CDI 0 2 0 35 683 1682 782 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 1424 5387 6678
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72606 15115 199 862 324 97 4 0
OW 63 301 35 478 273 51 13 0
VODI 0 73 29 303 526 87 28 0
ODI 0 9 5 158 561 168 70 0
CDI 0 2 1 26 837 1946 617 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 250 2345 4657 5979
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72877 15127 180 821 317 68 0 0
OW 63 222 47 470 194 55 0 0
VODI 0 41 26 367 502 80 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 156 674 156 6 0
CDI 0 8 2 40 957 2130 356 0
VCDI 0 4 4 41 304 2400 5042 5358
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72583 15156 194 1094 393 87 0 0
OW 62 145 31 411 290 70 7 0
VODI 0 27 13 291 507 86 16 0
ODI 0 9 4 163 635 219 33 0
CDI 0 18 3 73 1271 1884 452 0
VCDI 0 20 7 53 264 3592 5363 3574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72583 15117 189 1054 405 90 0 0
OW 62 181 36 431 270 78 6 0
VODI 0 30 14 304 503 77 17 0
ODI 0 11 3 172 614 209 35 0
CDI 0 17 3 73 1318 1919 424 0
VCDI 0 19 7 51 250 3565 5389 3574

Date: 2021-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72526 15200 201 1198 337 110 0 0
OW 62 124 25 382 377 77 3 0
VODI 0 27 12 249 590 77 20 0
ODI 0 2 2 155 645 320 46 0
CDI 0 18 6 92 1375 1820 381 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 332 3137 5559 3514
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72526 15174 191 1154 374 112 0 0
OW 62 143 35 410 339 74 3 0
VODI 0 33 12 267 593 81 21 0
ODI 0 5 1 155 639 293 34 0
CDI 0 16 7 101 1388 1799 416 0
VCDI 0 0 0 88 323 3182 5535 3514

Date: 2021-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73102 14601 200 1070 428 104 0 0
OW 61 102 55 458 210 64 2 0
VODI 0 7 3 448 514 65 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 126 1097 164 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1548 2466 234 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 138 2467 5161 4166
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73102 14535 204 1165 545 143 1 0
OW 61 138 41 382 346 77 7 0
VODI 0 37 11 284 560 123 13 0
ODI 0 0 2 156 626 327 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 1490 1766 490 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 368 2894 4847 4166

Date: 2021-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73549 14472 208 1036 404 111 13 0
OW 61 82 31 554 246 50 12 0
VODI 0 6 5 391 658 65 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 1008 350 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1559 2188 443 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 126 1670 5428 4191
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73549 14387 202 1133 532 148 23 0
OW 61 118 31 402 343 72 18 0
VODI 0 44 6 286 571 164 31 0
ODI 0 11 5 156 622 356 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 137 1586 1580 512 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 347 2114 5289 4191

Date: 2021-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72527 15561 198 1076 360 113 0 0
OW 60 161 36 513 252 65 2 0
VODI 0 39 15 350 633 129 11 0
ODI 0 1 1 225 935 359 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 1622 1986 469 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 217 1931 5125 4034
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72527 15481 207 1230 497 193 3 0
OW 60 131 25 412 323 94 10 0
VODI 0 86 8 204 637 179 14 0
ODI 0 62 9 142 640 361 102 0
CDI 0 2 1 242 1621 1603 476 4
VCDI 0 0 0 11 301 2153 5019 4030


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