Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72454 15356 198 999 352 91 20 0 OW 65 446 50 631 330 34 25 0 VODI 0 106 24 403 754 97 47 0 ODI 0 7 4 244 824 323 101 0 CDI 0 7 2 97 1497 2307 1207 14 VCDI 0 3 0 50 955 6116 25889 54919	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72606 15529 212 941 355 97 4 0 OW 63 454 35 558 359 59 13 0 VODI 0 121 36 420 735 139 38 0 ODI 0 26 8 255 905 287 111 0 CDI 0 12 7 161 1681 2689 1389 17 VCDI 0 5 1 90 1304 6970 25909 52447	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72877 15769 196 915 357 68 0 0 OW 63 257 48 606 305 56 0 0 VODI 0 82 30 543 854 95 0 0 ODI 0 21 4 288 1155 271 27 0 CDI 0 25 7 181 2012 3107 693 28 VCDI 0 4 4 111 1213 8479 27330 48967	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72583 15700 207 1230 431 87 0 0 OW 62 181 38 509 463 74 7 0 VODI 0 71 18 437 935 140 16 0 ODI 0 37 10 277 1204 517 64 0 CDI 0 51 11 291 2123 3022 948 4 VCDI 0 39 13 257 1526 10461 27271 45733	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72583 15669 202 1221 456 91 0 0 OW 62 211 44 515 405 81 6 0 VODI 0 74 19 441 948 133 17 0 ODI 0 42 9 275 1198 516 70 0 CDI 0 45 10 278 2216 3079 904 6 VCDI 0 38 13 271 1459 10401 27309 45731

Date: 2021-05-15:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72526 15661 220 1348 356 110 0 0 OW 62 135 30 498 579 78 3 0 VODI 0 37 13 479 1051 137 20 0 ODI 0 15 4 349 1139 627 71 0 CDI 0 56 18 444 2306 2995 1034 12 VCDI 0 26 8 299 2055 11366 27490 43391	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72526 15634 210 1317 413 112 0 0 OW 62 154 39 531 502 75 3 0 VODI 0 44 14 482 1075 140 21 0 ODI 0 16 3 324 1139 578 70 0 CDI 0 53 17 446 2276 2951 1145 13 VCDI 0 29 10 317 2081 11457 27379 43390

Date: 2021-05-17:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73102 15016 219 1229 443 104 0 0 OW 61 119 60 658 333 65 2 0 VODI 0 26 7 786 1053 77 8 0 ODI 0 21 2 256 1987 316 26 0 CDI 0 37 11 273 3178 4179 625 62 VCDI 0 24 6 163 1383 9788 30822 40521	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73102 14945 221 1359 605 143 1 0 OW 61 146 45 510 596 82 7 0 VODI 0 55 15 476 1046 177 13 0 ODI 0 13 5 313 1046 579 87 19 CDI 0 55 8 362 2571 2776 1754 101 VCDI 0 29 11 345 2513 10772 29621 40463

Date: 2021-05-19:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73549 14889 226 1258 416 111 13 0 OW 61 91 37 897 388 53 12 0 VODI 0 12 10 634 1134 108 17 0 ODI 0 18 2 245 1714 584 59 22 CDI 0 39 9 495 3256 4089 1235 52 VCDI 0 33 11 274 1381 9448 31834 38332	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73549 14788 219 1363 609 157 23 0 OW 61 134 33 603 561 87 18 0 VODI 0 56 12 487 950 248 61 9 ODI 0 21 10 321 1019 658 157 36 CDI 0 33 3 416 2620 2708 2176 70 VCDI 0 50 18 613 2530 10535 30735 38291

Date: 2021-05-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72527 16079 212 1288 382 113 0 0 OW 60 208 46 849 363 66 2 0 VODI 0 65 25 704 1102 151 11 0 ODI 0 41 13 474 1740 549 68 9 CDI 0 58 11 673 3712 3998 1118 55 VCDI 0 40 12 275 1609 10163 30948 37229	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72527 15986 222 1482 579 194 3 0 OW 60 158 28 564 529 98 13 0 VODI 0 123 15 439 1043 282 87 24 ODI 0 89 12 363 1124 637 216 37 CDI 0 53 18 644 2875 3388 1533 85 VCDI 0 82 24 771 2758 10441 30295 37147

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