Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-04-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 28 0 15 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 75 11 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 219 336 250 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 395 2460 9054 32983
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 20 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 41 15 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 58 10 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 232 238 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 503 2045 9844 32679
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 81 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 95 54 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 369 383 236 38
VCDI 0 0 0 8 267 2758 12152 29316
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 2 22 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 8 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 163 60 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 465 313 198 55
VCDI 0 0 0 12 363 2599 11807 29526
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 4 55 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 31 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 174 64 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 444 304 194 54
VCDI 0 0 0 16 379 2604 11805 29527

Date: 2021-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 19 31 0 0 0
OW 0 8 2 81 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 2 53 59 9 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 29 96 84 9 13
CDI 0 0 1 25 291 323 184 101
VCDI 0 0 0 29 399 2727 11338 29885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 1 55 50 0 0 0
OW 0 11 3 58 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 45 47 11 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 22 99 85 12 12
CDI 0 0 1 25 266 317 165 106
VCDI 0 0 0 31 429 2730 11354 29881

Date: 2021-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 33 2 25 23 0 0 0
OW 0 81 6 88 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 5 38 104 11 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 7 156 44 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 409 359 100 24
VCDI 0 0 0 15 298 2079 10203 31596
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 83 4 67 54 0 0 0
OW 0 62 4 36 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 2 37 40 12 9 0
ODI 0 8 5 15 88 39 34 1
CDI 0 0 0 3 252 261 200 91
VCDI 0 0 0 39 565 2181 10090 31528

Date: 2021-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 79 13 83 54 0 0 0
OW 0 134 0 27 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 1 13 80 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 109 72 21 0
CDI 0 4 0 6 391 361 175 5
VCDI 0 3 1 24 359 2163 11335 30260
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 147 9 64 82 0 0 0
OW 0 53 4 18 18 2 4 0
VODI 0 34 1 25 36 26 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 64 57 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 168 216 312 22
VCDI 0 7 1 32 666 2319 11175 30243

Date: 2021-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 194 11 71 34 0 0 0
OW 0 85 2 30 43 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 16 111 21 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 163 77 32 0
CDI 0 5 2 22 456 304 253 9
VCDI 0 3 0 32 534 2673 11823 28838
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 219 10 45 44 0 1 0
OW 0 49 1 28 19 1 12 0
VODI 0 12 2 35 56 16 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 81 41 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 242 273 414 20
VCDI 0 8 2 41 899 2745 11606 28827


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