Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72687 14219 175 982 307 42 0 0 OW 71 421 83 554 331 32 0 0 VODI 0 123 30 436 729 104 17 0 ODI 0 60 8 167 734 244 61 0 CDI 0 24 3 116 1050 1790 1075 57 VCDI 0 54 8 98 1108 6967 25071 57010	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71681 14936 198 1090 446 61 0 0 OW 71 442 75 596 404 53 0 0 VODI 0 139 20 408 726 121 1 0 ODI 0 47 8 134 787 264 53 0 CDI 0 10 2 126 1041 1992 917 18 VCDI 0 25 10 114 907 5642 25688 57795	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71954 14636 202 1056 393 57 0 0 OW 71 190 77 722 400 40 0 0 VODI 0 19 11 504 885 68 0 0 ODI 0 5 1 150 946 360 22 0 CDI 0 0 0 58 1354 2432 727 47 VCDI 0 0 0 34 566 7090 28107 53864	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71719 14752 201 1027 620 114 0 0 OW 71 220 74 566 596 57 0 0 VODI 0 36 16 466 824 104 3 0 ODI 0 3 3 166 856 389 43 0 CDI 0 0 0 65 1277 2269 1039 85 VCDI 0 0 0 12 707 6732 27800 54136	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71719 14802 211 1152 824 120 0 0 OW 71 169 65 524 509 62 0 0 VODI 0 36 16 409 776 103 4 0 ODI 0 4 2 140 836 388 46 0 CDI 0 0 0 61 1207 2221 1055 83 VCDI 0 0 0 16 728 6771 27780 54138

Date: 2021-05-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71881 15046 168 962 482 108 0 0 OW 70 348 93 780 311 59 3 0 VODI 0 80 33 561 662 83 40 0 ODI 0 14 6 228 744 325 88 13 CDI 0 0 1 84 1138 2357 1099 115 VCDI 0 0 0 41 945 6417 26820 54843	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71881 15173 199 1275 579 106 0 0 OW 70 242 70 591 299 69 3 0 VODI 0 64 26 470 648 94 43 0 ODI 0 9 5 206 679 326 72 12 CDI 0 0 1 73 1108 2195 973 120 VCDI 0 0 0 41 969 6559 26959 54839

Date: 2021-05-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72352 15280 172 714 281 107 6 0 OW 67 512 104 759 178 27 15 0 VODI 0 133 46 728 598 55 29 0 ODI 0 2 3 198 1113 203 71 0 CDI 0 0 0 77 1441 2382 572 24 VCDI 0 0 0 71 717 6373 25899 55739	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72352 15336 199 1066 442 119 17 0 OW 67 391 71 478 227 38 23 0 VODI 0 161 32 551 527 91 72 0 ODI 0 33 17 200 685 246 98 1 CDI 0 6 6 95 1238 1798 947 96 VCDI 0 0 0 157 1209 6855 25435 55666

Date: 2021-05-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72398 15318 214 1034 348 94 2 0 OW 65 430 52 587 311 32 14 0 VODI 0 142 45 384 718 90 21 0 ODI 0 3 5 216 872 317 65 0 CDI 0 8 0 80 1604 2211 570 20 VCDI 0 3 1 80 745 6241 27240 54468	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72397 15228 201 1124 509 115 12 0 OW 66 381 46 389 381 46 25 0 VODI 0 226 51 372 574 155 65 0 ODI 0 39 8 216 613 323 94 16 CDI 0 16 8 131 1227 1782 994 86 VCDI 0 14 3 149 1294 6564 26722 54386

Date: 2021-05-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72454 15356 198 999 352 91 20 0 OW 65 446 50 631 330 34 25 0 VODI 0 106 24 403 754 97 47 0 ODI 0 7 4 244 824 323 101 0 CDI 0 7 2 97 1497 2307 1207 14 VCDI 0 3 0 50 955 6116 25889 54919	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72454 15233 190 1208 473 110 41 0 OW 65 412 45 360 402 55 48 0 VODI 0 226 24 350 581 166 106 0 ODI 0 40 17 248 546 320 149 0 CDI 0 6 0 155 1138 1785 1433 61 VCDI 0 8 2 103 1572 6532 25512 54872

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