Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-04-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70295 15088 189 1235 249 14 0 0
OW 73 395 62 577 355 24 0 0
VODI 0 181 35 525 662 58 1 0
ODI 0 59 8 177 585 180 19 0
CDI 0 29 8 144 603 633 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 79 1080 3223 6003 6083
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71323 14333 188 1053 266 26 0 0
OW 73 434 47 585 368 18 0 0
VODI 0 257 42 425 606 70 0 0
ODI 0 94 13 155 471 257 16 0
CDI 0 51 8 168 683 758 136 0
VCDI 0 30 2 115 766 3362 5702 6199
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71976 14937 214 904 232 24 0 0
OW 71 200 68 621 251 10 0 0
VODI 0 72 11 401 637 51 0 0
ODI 0 29 4 147 571 284 1 0
CDI 0 20 1 110 646 958 230 0
VCDI 0 3 1 55 491 2897 5785 6187
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72711 14275 170 873 324 12 0 0
OW 71 343 78 434 365 28 0 0
VODI 0 90 27 313 580 139 0 0
ODI 0 28 5 164 458 258 29 0
CDI 0 15 1 127 583 1108 487 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 550 1999 6456 5983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72711 14305 181 942 396 11 0 0
OW 71 303 65 346 333 30 0 0
VODI 0 97 27 324 553 163 4 0
ODI 0 33 6 164 468 256 32 0
CDI 0 13 2 135 559 1019 470 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 551 2065 6466 5983

Date: 2021-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72460 14137 190 969 466 47 0 0
OW 71 365 71 545 383 44 0 0
VODI 0 54 15 319 659 90 9 0
ODI 0 22 3 106 591 210 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 549 1413 724 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 241 2141 5717 6384
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72460 14216 202 1067 563 46 0 0
OW 71 280 58 450 352 49 0 0
VODI 0 56 16 316 597 90 10 0
ODI 0 25 2 105 608 201 43 0
CDI 0 1 1 60 533 1338 699 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 236 2221 5738 6384

Date: 2021-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71537 14996 180 930 360 59 0 0
OW 71 281 98 655 282 29 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 492 648 59 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 71 936 211 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 525 1514 294 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 2108 6547 6111
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71537 14933 209 1204 606 74 0 0
OW 71 272 57 476 385 63 0 0
VODI 0 61 13 308 597 142 10 0
ODI 0 21 1 107 617 280 35 0
CDI 0 2 3 56 488 1214 936 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 127 2207 5871 6111

Date: 2021-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71917 14470 196 1048 510 97 0 0
OW 71 177 62 530 448 51 0 0
VODI 0 23 11 390 729 79 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 91 667 262 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 583 1508 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 119 2347 6635 5736
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71917 14188 187 1155 868 141 0 0
OW 71 346 58 405 368 75 0 0
VODI 0 115 20 288 538 192 9 0
ODI 0 20 4 142 531 309 38 0
CDI 0 4 2 89 600 1314 649 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 151 2313 6252 5736

Date: 2021-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71665 14961 166 946 533 84 0 0
OW 71 303 91 610 314 65 0 0
VODI 0 52 25 435 522 78 15 0
ODI 0 9 1 175 590 180 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 829 1287 403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 261 2557 5891 5868
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71665 14669 181 1149 771 148 0 0
OW 71 460 50 346 324 65 13 0
VODI 0 167 42 358 472 123 23 0
ODI 0 28 9 232 495 244 57 0
CDI 0 1 1 148 712 976 476 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 275 2695 5783 5868


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