Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-04-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 24 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 66 42 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 170 292 167 38
VCDI 0 0 0 18 462 2887 8655 33011
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 25 22 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 88 47 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 175 410 127 40
VCDI 0 0 0 2 445 2681 10918 30852
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 35 1 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 85 24 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 361 458 144 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 258 2514 9586 32381
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 26 0 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 68 1 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 355 228 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 331 2096 11829 30653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 23 0 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 67 2 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 215 337 240 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 355 2113 11814 30649

Date: 2021-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 12 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 31 11 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 77 31 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 304 283 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 477 1924 9572 33035
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 11 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 28 11 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 73 35 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 309 296 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 480 1905 9575 33035

Date: 2021-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 97 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 118 27 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 289 362 108 14
VCDI 0 0 0 1 209 1908 11677 31000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 18 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 37 15 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 68 15 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 215 204 142 34
VCDI 0 0 0 13 395 2062 11625 30980

Date: 2021-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 82 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 132 62 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 406 415 239 70
VCDI 0 0 0 9 281 2578 11303 30119
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 18 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 46 20 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 89 46 71 6
CDI 0 0 0 35 309 395 344 129
VCDI 0 0 0 17 537 2593 11142 30054

Date: 2021-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 10 28 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 44 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 58 81 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 154 57 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 397 258 212 21
VCDI 0 0 0 22 343 2922 12975 28142
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 28 48 3 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 126 64 123 8
CDI 0 0 0 63 245 371 525 54
VCDI 0 0 0 62 626 2806 12532 28101


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