Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70295 15088 189 1263 249 14 0 0
OW 73 395 62 608 365 24 0 0
VODI 0 187 39 567 720 62 1 0
ODI 0 72 10 235 742 243 67 0
CDI 0 32 9 219 920 1184 704 109
VCDI 0 30 11 241 1774 7340 23739 59166
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71323 14333 188 1075 268 26 0 0
OW 73 434 47 607 378 18 0 0
VODI 0 257 42 450 665 92 12 0
ODI 0 94 13 180 607 346 33 7
CDI 0 51 8 198 942 1409 385 162
VCDI 0 30 2 187 1481 6954 24313 59358
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71976 15001 219 913 232 24 0 0
OW 71 240 73 654 253 10 0 0
VODI 0 87 12 455 702 52 2 0
ODI 0 37 5 183 780 323 16 0
CDI 0 20 1 154 1147 1668 468 40
VCDI 0 3 1 167 939 6258 25252 58610
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72711 14401 170 873 324 12 0 0
OW 71 400 88 455 368 28 0 0
VODI 0 135 33 403 651 139 8 0
ODI 0 58 8 195 651 279 74 0
CDI 0 30 4 167 980 1730 853 21
VCDI 0 45 6 112 1138 5843 28408 55176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72711 14447 181 942 396 11 0 0
OW 71 354 75 370 337 30 0 0
VODI 0 138 34 417 626 163 22 0
ODI 0 59 8 191 650 273 85 0
CDI 0 31 5 183 955 1631 854 24
VCDI 0 40 6 102 1148 5923 28382 55173

Date: 2021-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72460 14224 190 970 466 47 0 0
OW 71 442 79 573 397 46 0 0
VODI 0 110 22 411 756 108 14 0
ODI 0 41 8 134 773 266 70 3
CDI 0 9 2 91 1058 2002 939 50
VCDI 0 27 4 90 1043 5659 26418 56975
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72460 14311 202 1069 563 46 0 0
OW 71 355 65 479 370 53 0 0
VODI 0 106 25 404 686 108 15 0
ODI 0 45 6 132 783 257 73 3
CDI 0 10 3 99 1079 1940 943 52
VCDI 0 26 4 86 1012 5724 26410 56973

Date: 2021-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71537 15096 181 935 360 59 0 0
OW 71 367 109 673 314 29 0 0
VODI 0 19 14 593 815 67 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 119 1260 256 17 0
CDI 0 2 2 45 1089 2435 593 14
VCDI 0 3 5 62 428 5413 28020 56042
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71537 15026 210 1209 610 74 0 0
OW 71 330 65 491 417 71 0 0
VODI 0 105 23 347 688 157 12 0
ODI 0 21 5 171 792 301 55 0
CDI 0 2 3 104 1029 1843 1269 47
VCDI 0 5 7 105 730 5813 27294 56009

Date: 2021-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71917 14536 200 1066 524 97 0 0
OW 71 184 69 626 538 51 0 0
VODI 0 23 11 445 901 86 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 125 930 369 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1161 2549 977 78
VCDI 0 0 0 12 527 6323 26708 55858
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71917 14251 189 1167 868 141 0 0
OW 71 356 66 450 404 80 0 0
VODI 0 115 21 367 630 218 15 0
ODI 0 20 4 177 664 401 109 6
CDI 0 4 2 130 1134 2170 1198 205
VCDI 0 0 0 25 881 6465 26402 55725

Date: 2021-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71665 15018 171 971 561 84 0 0
OW 71 314 93 729 400 65 0 0
VODI 0 52 28 544 734 87 15 0
ODI 0 9 1 231 839 283 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 1429 2185 955 25
VCDI 0 0 0 22 770 7076 29467 51979
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71665 14711 184 1158 774 148 0 0
OW 71 473 52 389 355 66 13 0
VODI 0 180 44 436 580 126 38 0
ODI 0 28 12 306 652 344 235 24
CDI 0 1 1 231 1131 1611 1267 194
VCDI 0 0 0 73 1241 7485 28963 51786


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