Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69406 15201 189 923 295 12 0 0
OW 60 652 34 411 356 11 0 0
VODI 0 530 31 306 693 20 0 0
ODI 0 341 34 245 630 240 3 0
CDI 0 243 17 240 733 1559 193 5
VCDI 0 473 76 762 1616 5687 17890 66931
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70384 14836 161 787 288 39 0 0
OW 74 781 46 442 327 6 0 0
VODI 0 723 36 348 699 56 0 0
ODI 0 364 29 240 587 245 19 0
CDI 0 302 19 242 955 1569 380 40
VCDI 0 652 62 558 1741 7254 22962 58795
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70358 15673 198 970 294 15 0 0
OW 71 463 55 533 376 19 0 0
VODI 0 363 37 440 725 54 2 0
ODI 0 121 18 289 848 401 76 28
CDI 0 79 14 230 1160 2767 996 147
VCDI 0 203 31 357 1361 7473 21354 58449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69948 15511 213 1204 340 22 0 0
OW 73 336 65 634 350 26 0 0
VODI 0 204 20 464 855 38 11 0
ODI 0 88 18 226 843 325 95 0
CDI 0 49 6 211 961 1602 658 91
VCDI 0 65 11 180 1842 7492 23278 58693
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69948 15523 216 1282 386 28 0 0
OW 73 312 62 555 351 16 0 0
VODI 0 203 23 472 765 50 6 0
ODI 0 105 13 217 837 281 89 0
CDI 0 58 8 192 978 1532 639 102
VCDI 0 52 11 201 1874 7598 23308 58682

Date: 2021-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70553 14910 186 1045 402 33 0 0
OW 73 401 63 541 419 35 0 0
VODI 0 204 33 474 678 116 7 0
ODI 0 72 14 192 637 304 49 0
CDI 0 47 3 189 950 1152 464 152
VCDI 0 18 2 259 1584 6206 25868 58713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70553 14964 191 1168 487 41 0 0
OW 73 330 54 461 381 27 0 0
VODI 0 206 39 427 633 98 5 0
ODI 0 76 10 178 563 286 46 0
CDI 0 45 5 202 1032 1187 508 195
VCDI 0 31 2 264 1574 6207 25829 58670

Date: 2021-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71638 14939 178 867 229 5 0 0
OW 71 343 93 791 204 12 0 0
VODI 0 76 23 561 730 37 9 0
ODI 0 31 5 172 1043 241 18 3
CDI 0 23 2 118 1216 1566 257 113
VCDI 0 0 0 131 1027 7129 25171 57976
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71636 14428 174 1151 392 19 0 0
OW 73 476 52 348 309 13 6 0
VODI 0 318 45 355 515 72 19 0
ODI 0 83 17 247 541 215 51 44
CDI 0 61 9 238 1084 1259 488 262
VCDI 0 46 4 301 1608 7412 24891 57786

Date: 2021-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72432 14643 199 935 280 21 0 0
OW 71 288 77 563 343 15 0 0
VODI 0 128 16 359 682 108 5 0
ODI 0 55 10 142 703 315 61 0
CDI 0 40 6 164 1091 1613 642 15
VCDI 0 29 8 156 1095 5798 29626 54314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72432 14022 169 963 430 29 0 0
OW 71 515 59 302 320 39 0 0
VODI 0 345 45 312 411 170 31 0
ODI 0 115 13 264 447 230 68 1
CDI 0 131 17 219 1113 1196 819 91
VCDI 0 55 13 259 1473 6206 29416 54237

Date: 2021-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72687 14219 175 982 307 42 0 0
OW 71 421 83 554 331 32 0 0
VODI 0 123 30 436 729 104 17 0
ODI 0 60 8 167 734 244 61 0
CDI 0 24 3 116 1050 1790 1075 57
VCDI 0 54 8 98 1108 6967 25071 57010
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72687 13715 154 876 446 66 0 0
OW 71 601 67 338 273 68 2 0
VODI 0 284 50 457 388 123 33 0
ODI 0 125 15 326 517 217 97 3
CDI 0 89 8 223 1286 1405 1069 40
VCDI 0 87 13 133 1349 7300 25023 57024


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