Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68195 14842 167 698 334 17 0 0
OW 52 614 61 487 281 14 0 0
VODI 0 358 34 576 578 103 0 0
ODI 0 159 25 298 724 237 4 0
CDI 0 133 19 239 909 1614 173 4
VCDI 0 78 20 409 1731 5098 21695 66068
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68651 14398 142 674 293 13 0 0
OW 56 771 62 408 260 34 0 0
VODI 0 477 47 585 502 114 1 0
ODI 0 312 12 296 591 205 11 0
CDI 0 226 15 170 788 1228 194 7
VCDI 0 214 42 763 1924 5184 22199 65179
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68752 15192 176 829 274 11 0 0
OW 61 638 56 542 266 15 0 0
VODI 0 444 39 366 604 106 0 0
ODI 0 195 15 210 726 300 4 0
CDI 0 138 19 256 732 1383 166 11
VCDI 0 38 14 319 1482 4998 18606 69065
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69370 15141 177 942 224 9 0 0
OW 60 677 42 387 276 9 0 0
VODI 0 463 37 338 619 59 0 0
ODI 0 276 31 267 596 189 11 0
CDI 0 189 20 287 685 1314 241 37
VCDI 0 320 64 823 1583 5511 17411 68363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69370 15215 184 981 248 9 0 0
OW 60 593 38 362 274 6 0 0
VODI 0 475 37 335 620 68 0 0
ODI 0 279 27 259 582 203 12 0
CDI 0 171 26 266 689 1290 240 36
VCDI 0 333 59 841 1570 5515 17411 68364

Date: 2021-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69967 14914 166 831 292 18 0 0
OW 59 707 47 424 365 14 0 0
VODI 0 687 25 330 756 32 0 0
ODI 0 404 27 174 590 263 3 0
CDI 0 311 14 175 773 1461 370 13
VCDI 0 649 78 600 1496 6444 21253 62316
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69952 15034 171 918 342 17 0 0
OW 74 630 43 379 353 16 0 0
VODI 0 654 29 311 744 41 0 0
ODI 0 381 24 171 603 261 2 0
CDI 0 311 15 164 743 1447 383 13
VCDI 0 662 75 591 1487 6450 21241 62316

Date: 2021-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70465 15632 162 655 257 13 0 0
OW 71 627 75 601 283 17 0 0
VODI 0 488 42 549 714 37 0 0
ODI 0 206 29 325 1004 284 46 2
CDI 0 132 8 216 1177 2738 839 95
VCDI 0 392 37 296 1148 6417 24661 56308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70463 15034 163 881 400 27 0 0
OW 73 717 48 357 375 10 0 0
VODI 0 563 52 377 671 86 0 0
ODI 0 310 16 256 548 312 42 7
CDI 0 270 22 230 878 1836 577 81
VCDI 0 583 52 541 1711 7235 24927 56317

Date: 2021-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70188 15569 202 1126 296 17 0 0
OW 71 420 59 559 374 24 0 0
VODI 0 257 33 491 765 55 11 0
ODI 0 106 17 231 864 389 93 4
CDI 0 65 6 184 1132 2335 790 154
VCDI 0 98 15 246 1767 7149 22988 57898
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70186 14696 161 990 472 28 0 0
OW 73 645 46 336 364 33 1 0
VODI 0 552 38 428 670 116 13 0
ODI 0 256 38 319 554 383 72 2
CDI 0 156 17 293 893 1841 520 118
VCDI 0 210 32 471 2245 7568 23276 57936

Date: 2021-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70295 15088 189 1263 249 14 0 0
OW 73 395 62 608 365 24 0 0
VODI 0 187 39 567 720 62 1 0
ODI 0 72 10 235 742 243 67 0
CDI 0 32 9 219 920 1184 704 109
VCDI 0 30 11 241 1774 7340 23739 59166
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70309 14551 158 1042 382 18 0 0
OW 59 501 55 414 340 36 1 0
VODI 0 323 50 505 541 145 6 0
ODI 0 179 16 337 447 279 88 10
CDI 0 128 19 294 799 891 607 86
VCDI 0 122 22 541 2261 7498 23809 59179


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