Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68095 14938 158 711 250 11 0 0
OW 53 556 59 527 281 12 0 0
VODI 0 336 43 438 524 83 0 0
ODI 0 140 15 236 491 147 11 0
CDI 0 119 12 188 602 566 61 67
VCDI 0 71 19 376 1744 5135 16401 73572
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69772 13815 135 471 191 2 0 0
OW 53 628 58 438 234 36 0 0
VODI 0 389 53 409 485 124 0 0
ODI 0 181 19 225 482 148 17 0
CDI 0 128 13 212 545 663 246 2
VCDI 0 205 22 392 1479 4599 16216 73961
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69047 14817 136 527 163 14 0 0
OW 52 661 68 460 177 3 0 0
VODI 0 413 50 552 445 32 0 0
ODI 0 213 18 295 723 134 0 0
CDI 0 146 19 270 867 860 64 31
VCDI 0 136 20 396 1623 4748 19278 69590
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68488 14744 156 686 277 19 0 0
OW 52 675 39 446 250 7 0 0
VODI 0 445 43 523 569 50 0 0
ODI 0 188 20 298 759 216 2 0
CDI 0 149 17 315 917 1378 213 2
VCDI 0 82 20 474 1769 4658 19962 68140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68488 15205 177 887 313 19 0 0
OW 52 474 40 529 310 4 0 0
VODI 0 277 33 453 818 55 0 0
ODI 0 138 13 251 630 269 6 0
CDI 0 127 17 246 860 1571 264 2
VCDI 0 62 15 376 1610 4410 19907 68140

Date: 2021-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68267 14661 150 705 317 15 0 0
OW 53 721 74 424 318 19 0 0
VODI 0 399 36 585 584 107 0 0
ODI 0 169 29 358 608 311 0 0
CDI 0 120 19 282 785 1578 209 5
VCDI 0 110 22 479 1752 5287 23127 64363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68267 15138 191 955 397 15 0 0
OW 53 484 55 596 395 14 0 0
VODI 0 255 28 481 718 124 0 0
ODI 0 115 24 224 541 430 9 0
CDI 0 104 13 205 703 1679 301 3
VCDI 0 84 19 372 1610 5055 23026 64365

Date: 2021-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68895 14957 151 692 226 8 0 0
OW 61 803 64 500 253 14 0 0
VODI 0 429 49 639 619 75 2 0
ODI 0 161 18 255 744 260 9 0
CDI 0 65 16 313 827 1526 194 44
VCDI 0 49 10 323 1410 4773 20892 66722
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68895 14814 171 910 381 12 0 0
OW 61 654 67 529 304 42 0 0
VODI 0 363 17 367 582 135 7 0
ODI 0 205 18 146 531 328 33 0
CDI 0 146 8 174 611 1428 322 11
VCDI 0 282 27 596 1670 4711 20735 66755

Date: 2021-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68994 15147 182 941 240 14 0 0
OW 60 598 54 427 244 15 0 0
VODI 0 440 25 407 583 120 0 0
ODI 0 213 26 272 651 232 12 0
CDI 0 196 18 227 861 1057 233 21
VCDI 0 53 30 610 1625 5378 19110 67732
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68993 14788 179 933 347 34 0 0
OW 61 637 59 487 253 47 0 0
VODI 0 467 26 359 600 122 0 0
ODI 0 281 14 180 581 295 48 0
CDI 0 216 22 203 687 1022 268 15
VCDI 0 258 35 722 1736 5296 19039 67738

Date: 2021-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69406 15201 189 923 295 12 0 0
OW 60 652 34 411 356 11 0 0
VODI 0 530 31 306 693 20 0 0
ODI 0 341 34 245 630 240 3 0
CDI 0 243 17 240 733 1559 193 5
VCDI 0 473 76 762 1616 5687 17890 66931
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69406 14739 180 908 396 20 0 0
OW 60 704 43 441 319 4 0 0
VODI 0 495 26 272 679 38 0 0
ODI 0 387 19 172 595 351 5 0
CDI 0 340 24 202 647 1318 188 6
VCDI 0 775 89 892 1687 5798 17893 66930


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