Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-03-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68437 14470 129 490 228 41 0 0
OW 64 578 75 453 138 21 1 0
VODI 0 215 55 607 405 64 2 0
ODI 0 53 20 297 672 129 1 0
CDI 0 21 6 168 1001 768 84 0
VCDI 0 9 3 71 1103 4306 7788 6127
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68142 14677 160 571 177 24 0 0
OW 54 502 76 503 216 5 0 0
VODI 0 283 30 467 508 33 0 0
ODI 0 135 21 239 591 206 1 0
CDI 0 59 15 179 815 1010 128 0
VCDI 0 54 4 247 1510 3931 9062 4465
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67921 15079 180 658 212 13 0 0
OW 53 459 62 584 197 6 0 0
VODI 0 232 38 506 637 45 0 0
ODI 0 82 16 241 777 158 0 0
CDI 0 53 9 152 855 682 39 0
VCDI 0 78 7 211 1178 3784 7034 6862
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67916 14968 170 738 240 7 0 0
OW 53 521 50 452 328 11 0 0
VODI 0 322 40 381 586 114 4 0
ODI 0 122 14 236 481 231 33 0
CDI 0 99 8 173 591 644 27 0
VCDI 0 124 18 349 1465 3661 7112 6811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67916 14978 174 847 277 9 0 0
OW 53 499 50 374 362 10 0 0
VODI 0 316 36 362 531 105 3 0
ODI 0 131 17 244 460 227 39 0
CDI 0 95 5 159 615 619 18 0
VCDI 0 137 18 343 1446 3698 7116 6811

Date: 2021-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68627 14622 145 610 226 17 0 0
OW 53 563 62 516 233 8 0 0
VODI 0 353 35 429 500 89 0 0
ODI 0 159 21 179 500 147 0 0
CDI 0 102 10 164 588 584 72 0
VCDI 0 86 15 286 1361 3534 7638 6566
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68627 14664 152 746 239 17 0 0
OW 53 494 52 448 223 3 0 0
VODI 0 354 37 353 502 81 0 0
ODI 0 168 19 181 497 148 0 0
CDI 0 129 12 147 579 569 63 0
VCDI 0 76 16 309 1368 3561 7647 6566

Date: 2021-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69700 14288 131 448 125 4 0 0
OW 52 575 69 433 199 13 0 0
VODI 0 357 40 463 562 76 0 0
ODI 0 131 12 250 868 177 17 0
CDI 0 118 10 239 789 980 76 0
VCDI 0 96 16 235 961 2899 7460 6231
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69699 13868 137 582 328 5 0 0
OW 53 537 45 270 358 21 0 0
VODI 0 375 29 289 523 98 0 0
ODI 0 230 18 190 401 201 16 0
CDI 0 204 13 183 515 774 127 0
VCDI 0 351 36 554 1379 3050 7410 6231

Date: 2021-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68834 14749 142 593 203 14 0 0
OW 52 640 47 468 204 3 0 0
VODI 0 429 44 456 541 61 0 0
ODI 0 256 17 176 699 147 0 0
CDI 0 171 21 186 842 1018 72 0
VCDI 0 109 17 423 1274 3310 7914 4968
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68834 14469 153 838 382 14 0 0
OW 52 579 39 309 345 18 0 0
VODI 0 373 21 310 504 104 0 0
ODI 0 229 24 157 467 186 1 0
CDI 0 249 15 144 680 730 50 0
VCDI 0 455 36 544 1385 3501 7935 4968

Date: 2021-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68195 14831 166 666 329 17 0 0
OW 52 606 61 482 267 14 0 0
VODI 0 349 33 570 564 103 0 0
ODI 0 155 23 291 706 218 0 0
CDI 0 126 19 223 827 1365 125 0
VCDI 0 74 17 303 1321 3051 7592 5359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68195 14674 190 1052 625 63 0 0
OW 52 511 28 331 338 114 0 0
VODI 0 322 29 277 549 181 2 0
ODI 0 182 24 167 541 285 51 7
CDI 0 197 18 192 684 1168 229 2
VCDI 0 255 30 516 1277 2957 7435 5350


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