Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68437 14470 131 503 236 41 0 0
OW 64 578 75 459 147 21 1 0
VODI 0 215 55 613 416 66 2 0
ODI 0 53 20 299 687 136 1 0
CDI 0 21 6 168 1022 800 89 7
VCDI 0 9 3 71 1141 5642 14355 75988
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68142 14701 161 571 177 24 0 0
OW 54 519 78 506 216 5 0 0
VODI 0 301 31 477 508 33 0 0
ODI 0 151 21 246 594 206 2 0
CDI 0 71 18 191 834 1044 235 11
VCDI 0 62 9 332 1820 5454 21323 67920
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67921 15117 184 659 212 13 0 0
OW 53 472 64 592 197 6 0 0
VODI 0 244 39 522 637 45 0 0
ODI 0 93 16 252 783 158 0 0
CDI 0 68 9 160 899 779 66 28
VCDI 0 130 17 285 1505 5322 20214 69287
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67916 15001 175 739 240 7 0 0
OW 53 533 51 464 328 11 0 0
VODI 0 332 41 398 587 114 4 0
ODI 0 133 15 246 489 231 33 0
CDI 0 115 8 179 654 664 32 52
VCDI 0 182 26 423 1823 4819 17778 72152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67916 15011 180 853 277 9 0 0
OW 53 509 50 387 362 10 0 0
VODI 0 328 37 378 534 105 3 0
ODI 0 140 18 252 472 227 39 0
CDI 0 112 5 163 685 640 22 63
VCDI 0 196 26 416 1791 4855 17783 72141

Date: 2021-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68627 14653 151 614 226 17 0 0
OW 53 569 63 532 233 8 0 0
VODI 0 363 35 445 504 89 0 0
ODI 0 166 22 188 513 149 0 0
CDI 0 114 10 174 622 716 102 14
VCDI 0 89 18 343 1620 4861 16925 73220
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68627 14696 157 749 239 17 0 0
OW 53 501 54 466 226 3 0 0
VODI 0 363 37 369 507 81 0 0
ODI 0 176 20 189 511 151 0 0
CDI 0 139 12 157 616 700 92 10
VCDI 0 79 19 366 1619 4888 16935 73224

Date: 2021-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69700 14324 135 459 125 4 0 0
OW 52 584 70 447 206 13 0 0
VODI 0 366 40 476 573 76 0 0
ODI 0 135 12 260 901 178 17 0
CDI 0 120 12 258 878 1088 153 0
VCDI 0 96 17 255 1154 4199 19441 70224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69699 13898 138 582 328 5 0 0
OW 53 548 48 281 360 21 0 0
VODI 0 386 30 307 531 98 0 0
ODI 0 235 18 200 413 203 16 0
CDI 0 207 15 196 547 836 217 2
VCDI 0 351 37 589 1658 4395 19378 70222

Date: 2021-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68834 14777 145 613 203 14 0 0
OW 52 650 48 476 214 3 0 0
VODI 0 442 44 461 556 61 0 0
ODI 0 262 18 180 716 155 0 0
CDI 0 181 21 199 934 1102 111 27
VCDI 0 119 18 488 1620 5062 21685 66557
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68834 14500 155 840 382 14 0 0
OW 52 591 41 323 348 18 0 0
VODI 0 384 21 327 513 104 0 0
ODI 0 239 25 161 487 192 1 0
CDI 0 257 15 163 767 792 153 80
VCDI 0 460 37 603 1746 5277 21642 66504

Date: 2021-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68195 14842 167 698 334 17 0 0
OW 52 614 61 487 281 14 0 0
VODI 0 358 34 576 578 103 0 0
ODI 0 159 25 298 724 237 4 0
CDI 0 133 19 239 909 1614 173 4
VCDI 0 78 20 409 1731 5098 21695 66068
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68195 14688 191 1071 625 63 0 0
OW 52 519 29 346 340 114 0 0
VODI 0 331 31 290 564 181 2 0
ODI 0 187 24 174 593 293 65 7
CDI 0 203 19 206 794 1353 348 28
VCDI 0 256 32 620 1641 5079 21457 66037


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